中国1961-2010年气象干旱的时空规律——基于SPEI和Intensity analysis方法的研究  

Variation Rules of Meteorological Drought in China during 1961- 2010 Based on SPEI and Intensity Analysis

作　　者：栗健[1,2] 岳耀杰[1,2,3] 潘红梅[3,4] 叶信岳[5] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院,北京100875 [2]北京师范大学区域地理研究实验室,北京100875 [3]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [4]民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875 [5]肯特州立大学地理系,美国肯特44242

出　　处：《灾害学》2014年第4期176-182,共7页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41171402);国家重点基础研究发展计划(2012CB955403)

摘　　要：利用中国752个气象站降水、气温资料,选择标准化降水蒸散发指数SPEI为干旱指标,采用Intensity analysis方法,从时间间隔、干旱等级变化和转换三个层面分析了1961-2010年中国气象干旱变化规律。结果表明:1961-2010年中国气象干旱的变化速率趋于上升,总变化面积由60%上升至80%以上,1980-1990年代、1990年代至21世纪初两个时间段的年平均变化相对于整个时间段较快。1960-1980年代干旱变化较为平缓,1960-1970年代干旱等级的转换主要以中等以下的干旱等级之间的转换为主导;1970-1980年代以无干旱与轻微、中等和严重干旱等级之间的相互转换为主导。1980年代至21世纪初干旱有加重的趋势,1980-1990年代以无干旱向极端干旱的转换为主导;1990年代至21世纪初中等以下的干旱向严重和极端干旱的转变成为了主导,而严重干旱则以向极端干旱转换为主导,极端干旱以向中等干旱转换为主导。Based on daily meteorological data from 752 stations in China from 1961 to 2010,and by using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index （SPEI）as drought index,the variation rules of meteorological drought in China are analyzed by using Intensity Analysis method in three levels as time interval,drought grades and transition.Results show that the changing rate of meteorological drought in China was accelerating from 1961 to 2010,with the total changing area rising from 60%to 80%.The mean changing rate of 1980s to 1990s and 1990s to 2000s was faster than that of the whole time interval.While the changing rate of the other time intervals was rela-tively slower than that of the whole time interval.Drought changed gently from 1960s to 1980s,with the targeted transitions being transitions among drought under moderate grade from 1960s to 1970s and transitions among drought of light,moderate and severe grade from 1970s to 1980s.Drought had an aggravate tendency from 1980s to 2000s, with the targeted transitions being transitions from no drought to drought of other grades from 1980s to 1990s and transitions from severe drought to extreme drought,from extreme drought to moderate drought and from drought un-der moderate grade to severe and extreme drought from 1990s to 2000s.

关 键 词：SPEI INTENSITY ANALYSIS 气象干旱 时空规律 中国 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]