基于降雨温度偏差纠正的金华江流域未来地表径流预估  

Evaluation of future surface runoff in Jinhua river basin based on bias correction

作　　者：马冲[1] 高希超[1] 许月萍[1] 康丽莉 张永强[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学建筑工程学院水利工程学系,杭州310058 [2]浙江省气象科学研究所,杭州310058

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2014年第5期20-27,共8页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：国家国际科技合作专项(2010DFA24320);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006038);国家自然科学基金(51379183;50809058)

摘　　要：利用区域气候模式PRECIS与分布式水文模型DHSVM进行耦合,并用金华江流域实测水文数据对水文模型参数进行了率定,将PRECIS模拟的A1B情景下基准期(1961-1990年)及未来期(2011-2040年)的气象数据作为DHSVM模型的输入,模拟出相应时期金华江流域的径流,然后对这两个时期的径流量进行比较、评估。由于PRECIS模拟的降雨和温度等较实测数据有较大误差,在利用PRECIS数据驱动水文模型前先对降雨和温度数据进行了偏差纠正。结果表明,偏差纠正可以较好的消除PRECIS模拟的降雨和温度等数据的误差;A1B情景下未来期(2011-2040年)金华江流域的地表径流量、极端径流值等较基准期(1961-1990年)略有减少,地表径流量减少约3.86%,变化不显著。A regional climate model PRECIS is coupled with a distributed hydrological model DHSVM. The parameters of DHSVM are calibrated with observed hydrological data, then this calibrated model with its input data of atmospheric conditions simulated by PRECIS is used to simulate the runoff of Jinhua river basin for baseline period （1961-1990） and future period （2011-2040）, and the change of runoff in the future period is investigated. To correct the large biases in precipitation and temperature generated by PRECIS, the hydrological model modifies these two inputs. The results showed that the bias correction on precipitation and temperature is effective and that under scenario A1B, the volumes of runoff and peak runoffs in the future period are slightly less than those in the baseline period, although not significant.

关 键 词：工程水文学 气候变化 区域气候模式 偏差纠正 分布式土壤植被水文模型 金华江流域 

分 类 号：TV121.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]