列车运行延误条件下城市轨道交通网络换乘站大客流预警方法  

Method for Early Warning of Heavy Passenger Flow at Transfer Station of Urban Rail Transit Network under Train Delay

作　　者：徐瑞华[1] 叶剑鸣[1] 潘寒川[1] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学交通运输工程学院,上海201804

出　　处：《中国铁道科学》2014年第5期127-133,共7页China Railway Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71071112;71271153);国家科技支撑计划项目(2011BAG01B01)

摘　　要：通过分析城轨列车运行延误对乘客出行方式选择的影响,给出受列车运行延误影响客流的判定条件式,以及该客流分别采用常规公交、仍按原选择路径待列车恢复正常运营后继续出行、最短替代路径绕行等3种出行方式下的客流量计算模型;根据列车运行延误影响下客流选择不同出行方式的客流量计算结果,得到列车运行延误影响下城市轨道交通网络各换乘站的客流量,并与正常运营下的客流量统计数据进行对比,得到列车运行延误条件下大客流所在的换乘站及其发生时段,据此作为换乘站大客流预警的依据,及时通知行车调度部门和有关换乘站做好大客流处置的准备。Through analyzing the influence imposed on passengers＂ travel mode choice by train delay in urban rail transit system, the paper puts forward the judgment equation of influenced passenger and the calculation method of passenger flow in three different travel mode choices which include exiting to select normal bus transit, waiting until the delay is over and then traveling on the same path, and selecting the shortest alternate path in urban rail transit network. According to the calculation of the above, the paper obtains the passenger flow distribution in transfer stations under the influence of train delay and contrasts with that under regular operation. On the basis of that, the paper achieves the location of transfer stations suffer from potential heavy passenger flow and duration of potential heavy passenger flow in each transfer station and then gains the foundation of heavy passenger flow warning. The result can help promptly inform the train dispatching department and the involved transfer stations to handle the potential heavy passenger flow.

关 键 词：城市轨道交通 列车延误 换乘站 客流量 大客流预警 

分 类 号：U231.92[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]