上海市南汇东滩滩涂围垦区农业生态安全评价  

Assessment of agricultural eco-security on the area of tidal flat reclamation at Dongtan of Nanhui, Shanghai

作　　者：刘畅[1,2] 方长明[1] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学生物多样性和生态工程教育部重点实验室,上海200433 [2]江苏省张家港市环境保护局,张家港215600

出　　处：《生态科学》2014年第3期553-558,573,共7页Ecological Science

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目(2010CB950604);上海市科委重大科技攻关项目(09DZ1900106)

摘　　要：针对上海市南汇东滩围垦区农业开发特点,以压力—状态—响应(PSR)模型框架作为研究方法,构建了反映和体现滩涂围垦区农业可持续发展对生态环境影响的指标体系。运用层次分析法(AHP)和综合加权评分法对南汇东滩围垦区农业发展进行生态评价,并对未来农业可持续发展安全进行预测。结果表明,南汇东滩围垦区围垦初期(2009—2012)农业生态安全综合评价指数范围为4.1—4.8,其安全状况处于临界安全状态。2015—2050年的生态安全综合评价指数从5.3到7.0,都高于围垦初期,其中2020年将达到良好安全状态,主要原因是社会响应的增加。可见,在政府引导和政策支持下,企业自主经营的模式有利于推动围垦区生态农业的建设和发展,可直接为南汇东滩围垦区农业发展提供科学依据,其研究方法可为类似围垦区农业生态安全评价借鉴。Considering the particular circumstances of the tidal flat reclamation area at Dongtan of Nanhui, Shanghai, the evaluation indices of eco-security of agriculture sustainable development was founded, based on ＂press-state-response＂ frame system. On basis of the index system, agricultural eco-security status was assessed quantitatively from 2009 to 2050 using the analytic hierarchy process（AHP） and synthetic weighted mark method. The results indicated that the values of integrated ecological security index ranged from 4.1 to 4.8 in the first period, suggesting the eco-security status was in a critical safe at the early stage of reclamation from 2009 to 2012. Then, the value of the index was in the range of 5.3 to 7.0 in the period 2015-2050, higher than those in 2009-2012. The status of eco-security will change into moderately safe status in 2020 due to the increase in society responses. With government guidance and policy support, the mode of enterprise independent management is conducive to promoting the construction and development of ecological agriculture in the reclamation area. The research can be used as science-dependencies for maintaining the agricultural eco-security at Dongtan of Nanhui, Shanghai, and its research technique can be used for the reference in the agricultural eco-security evaluation of similar regions.

关 键 词：滩涂围垦 生态安全 压力-状态-响应模型 评价体系 

分 类 号：S181[农业科学—农业基础科学] X171.3[环境科学与工程—环境科学]