制动冲突:解决中日东海权益争端之战略与对策  

Braking the Conflict:Resolution and Countermeasures of the Sino-Japan Dispute over the East China Sea

作　　者：张丽华[1] 姜鹏[2] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学行政学院 [2]哈尔滨工程大学马克思主义学院

出　　处：《东北亚论坛》2014年第6期46-57,125,共12页Northeast Asia Forum

基　　金：教育部2009年度哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(09JZD0037);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(10JJDGJW005)

摘　　要：横亘在中日之间的东海权益争端成为当前影响两国关系发展的持续扰动因素。通过对近代强国崛起战略与崛起成败的研究发现:一个国家实现崛起战略的进程大致可分为"追赶"、"僵持"和"超越"三个阶段。1中国目前相对于日本处于战略"僵持阶段",而对于美日同盟则处于战略"追赶阶段"。在战略僵持与追赶阶段对于崛起国奉行温和的"缓进战略"要远远比激烈的"突进战略"更加受益。因此,在战略上提出东海战略要服从于整体海洋战略,整体海洋战略要服从于整体崛起战略;在追赶与僵持阶段奉行"缓进战略":以空间换时间、以拖待变、以压促谈、以武促和;在具体策略上借鉴北欧国家在北海权益划界争端中取得的成功经验,提出在东北亚地区实现中日合作开发东海资源的"北海布伦特模式"。The Sino-Japan dispute over the East China Sea has been the continuous disturbance factor affecting the development of relations between the two countries. Through the rising strategy and the success or failure of the modern powers,it has been found that the process of a country's rising path can be roughly divided into three stages:'chasing','stand-off',and'transcendence'. China is now in the process of'stand-off'relative to Japan but strategic'chasing'for the U.S.-Japan alliance. In the process of'chasing'and'stand-off',it is beneficial for the rising nation to implement moderate'gentle strategy'. The paper suggests that the East China Sea strategy should subordinate to the overall marine strategy which should also subordinate to the overall rising strategy of China. Besides,moderate'gentle strategy'should be implemented in the process of'chasing'and'stand-off'.Successful experiences of North European countries over the Nordic Sea disputes should be learnt. The'Brent Model of the Nordic Sea'could probably be an example for Sino-Japan joint exploitation of East China Sea.

关 键 词：中日关系 东海划界 东北亚地缘政治 崛起战略 

分 类 号：D823[政治法律—政治学]