空间视角下的东亚权力分布--一种基于引力模型的比较静态分析  

On the Economic Power Distribution in East Asia:A Comparative Static Analysis Based on Gravity Model

作　　者：马亚华[1] 冯春萍[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海师范大学商学院,上海200234 [2]华东师范大学俄罗斯研究中心、科技创新与发展战略研究中心,上海200062

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2014年第11期121-134,159-160,共14页World Economics and Politics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地华东师范大学俄罗斯研究中心基地重大项目“俄罗斯社会经济空间结构的现状与变动趋势研究”(项目编号:11JJDGJW002)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：地理位置对国家权力具有重要影响,但以克莱因综合国力方程为代表的定量学派忽视了空间向度,致使其在核算国家权力时因遗漏重大变量而出现偏误,从而损害了对国际关系现实的解释力。权力形成于国家相互竞争资源空间的过程之中,先天地与空间联系在一起,因此可以依据空间过程和空间相互作用原理,采用经验归纳的方法从空间视角探寻其形成机制。作者以东亚为例,从国家与国际体系整体的互动关系出发,通过引入空间引力模型,计算了2000年、2005年、2010年和2015年4个时间节点上体系内部各国的经济潜力值,并用其反映各国经济权力,试图在分析东亚权力结构演变趋势的同时找到一条计量国家权力大小的新路径。研究发现:一国经济权力不仅与其所拥有的经济和人口等资源的数量有关,同时也受该国到国际体系经济重心的距离的影响;东亚各国经济权力呈层级状、金字塔形分布,美国多年位居塔顶;2015年前后中国经济潜力将与美国基本持平,东亚地缘经济景观将呈现中美两大权力中心东西并立的空间格局。The geographical location has obvious effects on the power of a nation.However Cline's Comprehensive National Strength Model represented by the quantitative school neglects the spatial variables,leading to the damaged ability to explain the international relations.The power of nation arises from competition for resources among nations,so it naturally has spatial characteristics.We can explore its mechanism through inductive research in accordance with the principle of the spatial process and interaction.In order to show how and how much the location affect the national power,this paper provides a case study in East Asia(EA).In this study,the author calculated the economic potentials of all EA countries in 2000,2005,2010 and 2015 by means of Spatial Gravity Model from the point of the interaction between system and its units.The author finds that:1) The economic power is not only decided by the national resource represented by GDP and population,but also associated with the distance from the country to the economic center of the system;2)The pattern of power distribution in EA is like a pyramid with America sitting on the top.3) China will become a peer competitor of America probably in 2015,and then a bipolar structure will emerge in this region.

关 键 词：东亚 权力分布 空间引力 经济潜力 

分 类 号：D831[政治法律—政治学]