中国多态化能源结构下耦合相依网络模型研究  

Study of the coupled dependency network model based on China's multiple energy structure

作　　者：董高高[1] 田立新[1,2] 杜瑞瑾[1] 傅敏[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏大学能源发展与环境战略研究中心,江苏镇江212013 [2]南京师范大学,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《系统工程学报》2014年第5期619-627,共9页Journal of Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大资助项目(12&ZD062);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51276081;71073071;71303095);江苏省青年科学基金资助项目(BK20140569);江苏省高校自然科学面上资助项目(14KJB120001)

摘　　要：根据我国能源结构的多态化特性、能源消费结构的主体性依存和对外依赖性、能源区域的自治性和非自治性,以及能源供应区域的分布等特性,研究了一类具有自治节点和非自治节点的多重供应-依赖关系的耦合网络模型.通过定义网络之间和网络内部的失效机制,以网络中的星状结构为例,研究了随机故障和蓄意攻击两种突发事件下网络的抗毁性.对于随机故障下的网络,研究结果表明,通过增加各能源网络中的自治区域节点的比例,同时增加网络之间的多态化能源的供应密度和强度,可以有效的提高网络的抗毁性,增强网络的安全性.对于蓄意攻击下的网络,研究结果表明,除采取上述措施外,通过对网络中供应度高的节点进行重点保护,可以提高网络的稳健性.According to China＇s multiple energy structure, the dependency of fossil fuels and imported energy in energy consumption structure, autonomous and non-autonomous region of energy and the distribution feature of the energy supply, this paper studies a class of multiple supply-dependent coupling network model with nodes autonomous and nonautonomous. By defining failure mechanisms of inter- and intra- networks, for the case of starlike network, this paper researches the robustness of interdependent networks under random and targeted attack separately. For random-attack problem, we find that the energy networks get more robust and safe, as the fraction of autonomous nodes or the density of connectivity links increase. For targeted- attack problem, besides the above measures, the system robustness can be still increased by being focused on protecting the nodes with higher degree of central network.

关 键 词：多态化能源结构 耦合相依网络 随机故障 蓄意攻击 鲁棒性 

分 类 号：O213.2[理学—概率论与数理统计] N94[理学—数学]