基于状态空间模型的天津市环境承载力动态测评  

Measurement and assessment of environment carrying capacity of Tianjin based on State- Space Model

作　　者：李健[1,2] 杨丹丹[1] 高杨[2] 

机构地区：[1]天津理工大学管理学院循环经济与企业可持续发展研究中心,天津300384 [2]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2014年第11期25-30,共6页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：教育部人文社科规划项目(11YJA630046);天津市教委重大项目(2011ZD031);天津市科委战略规划项目(11ZLZLZF08100)"资助

摘　　要：从影响天津市环境承载力的压力要素和承压要素两个方面构建了评价指标体系,应用状态空间模型,测算了天津2006-2011年的环境承载力,并分析了关键影响因素,最后提出了相应的政策建议。结果表明:1)天津市2006-2011年处于可载状态;2)三次产业发展协调度以及水资源科学合理利用是最重要的影响因素;3)积极调整经济产业结构,大力促进三次产业的协调发展,并采取积极措施解决水资源利用问题是提高天津资源环境承载力的关键。An evaluation index system for environment carrying capacity（ ECC） was constructed from two aspects of stress factors and pressure factors effecting urban development. By applying state space model,the states of ECC of Tianjin from 2006 to 2011 were analyzed,and the factors limiting the city development were identified. At last,we proposed corresponding policy recommendations. The results show that： ①The states of ECC of Tianjin were under- carrying from 2006 to 2011. ②The coordinated development of the three industries development and the scientific and rational use of water resources were the significant restricting factors. ③ In order to boost the ECC of Tianjin,the industry structure should be adjusted,and also positive measures should be taken to solve water resource problems.

关 键 词：环境承载力 城市系统 状态空间模型 天津市 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]