基于分位数回归的国产大豆价格影响因素分析  

Analysis on Influencing Factors of Domestic Soybean Price Based on Quantile Regression

作　　者：刘欢[1] 张冬青[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学工学院,江苏南京210031

出　　处：《大豆科学》2014年第5期759-763,共5页Soybean Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71101072;71301077);江苏省自然科学基金(BK2011652);南京农业大学中央高校基本科研业务费人文社会科学基金(SK2014011)

摘　　要：大豆是重要的粮食作物,同时也是油料的重要来源,在我国国民经济中占有重要地位。由于受到多种因素影响,国产大豆价格表现出随机、不规则的波动性,冲击了大豆产业的经济效益。在定性分析国产大豆价格影响因素的基础上,建立了多元线性分位数回归模型,并分析每种因素在不同分位数下对国产大豆价格的影响程度,并据此提出了一些促进我国大豆产业健康发展的对策建议。Soybean is an important crop,and an important source of oil,so it plays an important role in China national economy. Due to a variety of factors,the price of soybean shows random and irregular volatility,which influencing economic benefit of soybean industry. In the paper,domestic soybean was analyzed on the basis of qualitative method from 3 aspects of supplying,demanding and macroeconomic. A quantile regression model for soybean price in China was proposed and every factor＇s effect on prices of soybean under different quantile weights was analyzed. The result showed that world＇s soybean production,Chinese consumer confidence index and China money supply were the main influencing factors. Domestic soybean price was negatively correlated to world＇s soybean production and positively correlated to Chinese consumer confidence indes and China money supply. Meanwhile,some suggestions to promote the healthy development of soybean industry in China were put forward according to the former model.

关 键 词：分位数回归 大豆价格 影响因素 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济] F224