结肠癌根治术后复发转移风险模型的初步建立及评估  

Preliminary establishment and risk assessment model after radical resection of colon cancer recurrence and metastasis

作　　者：周雄坤 陈祖林[1] 杨桦[1] 

机构地区：[1]第三军医大学附属新桥医院普外科,重庆400037

出　　处：《中国肿瘤临床与康复》2014年第11期1301-1303,共3页Chinese Journal of Clinical Oncology and Rehabilitation

摘　　要：目的初步建立并评估一个结肠癌术后复发转移的风险预测模型。方法回顾分析2009年6月至2013年6月间收治的240例结肠癌患者临床资料,通过Logistic回归分析建立模型,受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线评估模型。结果模型公式为:Ln[p/(1-P)]=3.63×淋巴结转移+2.64×B期+3.20×C期-2.63。模型受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线下面积为0.92,模型风险预测值为0.68。结论该模型能在一定程度上预测结肠癌根治术后复发转移风险。Objective To establish and evaluate a risk prediction model of recurrence and metastasis after resection of colorectal cancer.Methods Retrospective exposure information of 240 cases in a hospital during 2009 ~ 2013 were collected and Logistic regression was used to established model while receiver operating characteristic（ROC） curve was used to evaluate model.Results The model formula is：Ln（p /[1-P） ]= 3.63 × lymph node metastasis ＋ 2.64 × B ＋ 3.20 × C-2.63.The area under the ROC curve was0.92 and the predictive value P for the model was 0.68.Conclusion The established risk model of colon cancer recurrence and metastasis after radical resection can predict the risk of recurrence and metastasis in a certain extent.

关 键 词：结肠肿瘤 复发转移 预测模型 

分 类 号：R735.35[医药卫生—肿瘤]