财政政策对经济波动的不确定性影响效应——基于DSGE模型的分析  

Uncertainty Effect of Fiscal Policy on Economic Fluctuations—Based on DSGE Model

作　　者：李玉双[1] 刘凤根[2] 

机构地区：[1]嘉兴学院商学院,浙江嘉兴314001 [2]湖南商学院财政金融学院,湖南长沙410205

出　　处：《湖南商学院学报》2014年第5期5-14,共10页Journal of Hunan Business College

基　　金：国家社科项目"证券市场波动与宏观经济波动的关系研究--动态随机一般均衡视角"(项目编号:10BGL056):;湖南省社科基金项目"资产价格波动对居民财产性收入分配影响的实证研究"(项目编号:09YBA086);湖南省高等学校科学研究项目"防止资产价格过快上涨和抑制资产泡沫问题研究"(项目编号:09C587)

摘　　要：依据中国实际经济情况,通过Smets and Wouters(2003)模型进行拓展,构建了一个DSGE模型,探究了中国财政政策变化对经济波动的不确定性影响。研究结果显示财政政策对经济波动呈现出不确定性的影响:1非生产性财政支出对产出的影响并不是一直保持着正向影响,也会存在负向影响,原因在于,非生产性财政支出的增加最终是通过以后的税收增加来偿还的,或是通过减少以后的财政支出来偿还,而这些行为又都会抑制经济增长;2消费税、劳动收入税与资本收入税对产出的影响并不是一直都是负向。其原因在于:当前税收的增加会降低政府债务水平,从而可以增加未来的财政支出或是减少未来的税收,这些政策对产出都是具有扩张效应。According to actual economic condition in China, the paper expands Smets and Wouters （2003）＇s model to analyse the effect of fiscal policy on economic fluctuations. The results show： first, non-productive fiscal expenditure on output does not always have positive effect, there will be negative effect as well. The reason is that an increase in non-productive fiscal expenditure is ultimately repaid by future tax increases or by reducing the future fiscal expenditure. These behaviors will inhibit economic growth. Second, consumption tax labor income tax and capital income tax, which does not always have a negative effect on output. The reason is that increasing tax will reduce the level of government debt, which can increase the future fiscal expenditure or reduce future tax, and these policies have expansionary effect on output.

关 键 词：财政支出 税收 经济波动 DSGE模型 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学]