老小孩——VLCC船队找回了他们的“魔球”  

Groovy Baby-VLCCs have got their Mojo back

作　　者：Martin Stopford 

出　　处：《中国远洋航务》2014年第12期54-54,11,共1页China Ocean Shipping Monthly

摘　　要：今天虽然不是20世纪60年代,邪恶博士却依然在玩弄着VLCC船队的“魔球”。2007年以来逐渐减弱的原油需求增长已经导致了运力过剩,幸运的是降速航行抵消了一部分过剩运力,这样我们的英雄还可以有心情享受一个不错的小幅上升的市场。但是不幸的是奥斯丁在持久力上的表现一直欠佳。Over the years, investors in the VLCC market have shared an equally debilitating experience. The first of these miracles of modern shipping appeared in 1967. The VLCC market went mad. Investors queued to order 4 million barrel ships and the VLCC fleet grew faster than any other shipping fleet in history, from zero in 1967 to 193 m dwt in December 1979. For twenty years from 1983 to 2003 the VLCC fleet struggled along in a grim and Mojo-less world. Then in 2003 a big dose of Chinese medicine got the fleet kick started again. Long-haul imports by the big three of Europe, USA and Japan were topped off by China and the Asian tigers, and from 2003 to 2013 the VLCC fleet grew at 4% pa. But since 2007 demand has been sapped by high oil prices, increased US production, a credit crisis, and a deep OECD recession. As a result crude oil tonne miles have only increased by 5% in total since 2007. So there you have it. Although it's not the 1960 s, Dr Evil is still at work on the VLCC fleet's Mojo. Of course today's Mojo surgery is not as dire as the 1980 s, but the flagging crude demand growth since 2007 and brisk fleet growth have created spare capacity. Luckily some of it is soaked up by slow steaming, so when he's in the mood, our hero can still enjoy a nice little spike. But sadly Austin's still very short on stamina. Have a nice day.

关 键 词：VLCC 船队 小孩 运力过剩 需求增长 航行 

分 类 号：U674.133.1[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]