基于广义Pareto分布的广东省近50年极端降水事件研究  

Study on Extreme Precipitation Events in Guangdong for 50 a Based on GPD

作　　者：屈燕琴[1] 谢利[2] 曹铭斌 谢仁杰[1] 郭和蓉[2] 刘迎湖[1] 

机构地区：[1]华南农业大学理学院,广东广州510642 [2]华南农业大学农学院,广东广州510642

出　　处：《地理与地理信息科学》2014年第6期117-120,共4页Geography and Geo-Information Science

基　　金：广东省科技计划项目(2011B090400510)

摘　　要：利用广东省平均和5个代表站点1961-2010年近50年的逐日降水量资料,采用基于广义Pareto分布的平均剩余寿命图法计算极端降水阈值,并与传统的百分位法进行比较,对广东省极端降水的时间变化和空间分布特征进行了分析。结果表明,平均剩余寿命图法是计算极端降水阈值的一种有效方法,计算结果更能反映极端降水事件的区域差异。近50年来,广东省及各区域极端降水事件的强度和发生频率年际变化较大,均没有明显的上升趋势;热带、南亚热带和中亚热带3个自然分区的变化特征差异明显,空间上表现为南高北低的分布形式。Using the average remaining life diagram method based on the Generalized Pareto Distribution（GPD）,the extreme precipitation thresholds were calculated in Guangdong and its five stations during 1961-2010,and the results were compared with those of percentile method.The results show that the average remaining life diagram method is effective to calculate the extreme precipitation threshold,and the calculation results can reveal the region difference of extreme precipitation event.In the past 50 years,the interannual variability of the intensity and frequency of the extreme precipitation events in Guangdong was significant,and the uptrend wasn′t obvious.The variations were different between the tropical,the south subtropical and the middle subtropical,and the spatial distribution showed the southern was higher than the northern.

关 键 词：极端降水事件 阈值 百分位法 平均剩余寿命图法 

分 类 号：O242[理学—计算数学] P426[理学—数学]