湖南省极端降水过程客观监测指标研究  

Objective definition of monitoring index for extreme precipitation processes in Hu'nan province

作　　者：廖玉芳[1] 张剑明 刘兵[1,3] 李英[4] 唐爱军 段丽洁[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南省气候中心,湖南长沙410118 [2]株洲市气象局,湖南株洲412003 [3]张家界市气象局,湖南张家界427000 [4]成都军区空军气象中心,四川成都610041 [5]石门县气象局,湖南石门415300

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2014年第5期146-152,共7页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：湖南省地方标准"湖南省主要极端天气气候事件监测指标及判别标准"(201107);湖南省科技计划重大专项"湖南省极端气象灾害预警评估技术体系研究与示范应用"(2008FJ1006);中国气象局气候变化专项"湖南省适应气候变化战略研究"(CCSF 201212);湖南省国土资源厅项目"湘东南降雨型地质灾害风险预警技术研究"(201209)共同资助

摘　　要：利用1981—2010年湖南省97个地面气象观测站降水资料,基于二阶求导和尖顶突变模型等方法,分别对短历时降水序列和过程降水序列进行时间突变分析。结果表明:不同时间的最大小时累积降水量在时间上的突变点分别为12.0 h和6.1 h;过程降水持续时间突变点分别为10.0 d和4.4 d,不同持续时间最大降水量占过程总降水量的百分比及最大降水量在时间序列上的突变点分别为10.0 d、4.6 d和10.0 d、4.9 d。建立的湖南省极端降水过程客观监测指标为:连续1—6 h、12 h最大降水量,连续1—5 d、10 d最大降水量和过程累积降水量及降水持续时间。指标的适用性通过与农作物因洪涝灾害的受灾率、成灾率及单位面积粮食减产量的相关分析进行验证。Based on daily precipitation data at 97 ground weather stations from 1981 to 2010 in Hu′nan province, mutations of short-time precipitation sequence and process precipitation sequence were analyzed by methods of a second-order derivative analysis and a Cusp catastrophe model analysis.The results indicate that the maximum hourly accumulated short-time precipitation has two mutation points and both occur in the point of 12.0 hours and 6.1 hours respectively,while process precipitation has also two mutation points and both occur in the point of 10.0 days and 4.4 days.Percentage of duration of the maximum precipitation to the total process precipitation has two mutation points and both appear in the point of 10.0 days and 4.6 days.Two mutation points of maximum precipi-tation occur in the point of 10.0 days and 4.9 days.Thus,we establish a series of monitoring index of extreme pre-cipitation process in Hu′nan province,including 1-6 hours and 12 hours maximum continuous precipitation,1-5 days and 10 days maximum continuous precipitation,accumulated precipitation process and precipitation dura-tion.The indexes have been verified by correlation coefficients of monitoring indexes of extreme precipitation processes with affected and suffering rate of crop flooding disaster,and reduction rate of crop yield per unit.

关 键 词：极端降水 突变 过程监测 指标 

分 类 号：P466[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]