动态多变量灰色模型在危岩变形预测中的应用  

Application of dynamic multi-variable grey model to predication of deformation of unstable rock

作　　者：王高峰[1] 孙秀娟[1] 孙向东[1] 高幼龙[1] 王洪德[1] 乐琪浪[1] 史学磊 

机构地区：[1]中国地质调查局水文地质环境地质调查中心,河北保定071051

出　　处：《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》2014年第6期508-512,共5页Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：中国地质调查局地质调查地调项目(12120113008200)

摘　　要：基于对传统的单点灰色模型的扩展,考虑多个点之间相互影响和关联,采用自适应MGM(1,n)模型,以Matlab语言编程,实现对变形体上相互关联的多点变形预测模型的建模,并运用该模型对望霞危岩体变形进行预测。结果表明:自适应MGM(1,n)模型预测值与实测值吻合较好,比传统GM(1,1)模型预测的危岩变形趋势效果较好、精度较高,评价结果具有更高的准确性。A single-point GM （1,1） model was expanded into a multi-point mode1 with consideration of the correlation and interaction between multiple points. The self-adaptive MGM （1,n） model, was used for modeling and prediction of multi-point deformation, coded in Matlab. The model was applied to the prediction of deformation of the Wangxia Rock, which is an unstable rock. The results show that the predicted values agreed with the measured values, and the model had better effects, higher precision, and more accurate results than the traditional GM （1,1）model in predicting the deformation of unstable rocks.

关 键 词：多变量灰色预测 自适应模型 危岩体 动态预测 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]