考虑空气污染因素的光伏发电量回归分析  

Regression analysis of photovoltaic power generation with consideration of air pollution

作　　者：刘大为[1] 彭文博[1] 鲍亮亮[1,2] 马铭远[1] 赵志国[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国华能集团清洁能源技术研究院有限公司,北京102209 [2]太原理工大学材料科学与工程学院,山西太原030024

出　　处：《可再生能源》2014年第12期1785-1790,共6页Renewable Energy Resources

基　　金：中国华能集团科学技术研究项目(2012-2014)

摘　　要：人类活动产生的大气污染物对到达地面的太阳总辐照和光谱分布都会产生一定影响。文章利用一座分布式电站的实测数据,通过模型回归分析的统计学方法,定量地研究了空气质量和光伏发电量之间的直接关联强度。同时,考虑了温度、风力、云量和太阳光入射角度等气象、物理参数对于光伏发电量的影响。利用该回归模型,可以根据公开气象资料对小型光伏电站的发电量进行简单预测。Atmospheric pollutants produced by human activities have an effect on total solar irradiance and distribution of spectrum, which leads to loss of photovoltaic power generation. In this paper,the regression analysis model is used to study relationship between air quality and photovoltaic power generation based on data of a distributed PV plant. At the same time the impacts of other meteorological or physical parameters, such as temperature, wind, cloud cover and solar incidence angle on the photovoltaic power generation are also considered. This regression model can simply predict the power generation of small PV power stations on the basis of publicly reported meteorological data.

关 键 词：空气污染 光伏发电 发电量预测 回归分析 

分 类 号：TM615[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]