灾害风险科学发展与科技减灾  

Disaster Risk Science Development and Disaster Risk Reduction Using Science and Technology

作　　者：史培军[1,2,3] 孔锋[1,3] 叶谦[1] 汪明[1,3] 刘凯[1,3] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [2]北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京100875 [3]北京师范大学民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875

出　　处：《地球科学进展》2014年第11期1205-1211,共7页Advances in Earth Science

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目"全球变化与环境风险关系及其适应性范式研究"(编号:2012CB955404);国家自然科学基金创新研究群体项目"地表过程模型与模拟"(编号:413221001)资助

摘　　要：对近期召开的一系列国际灾害风险会议讨论的灾害风险科学关键前沿问题进行了分析。针对正在制定的国际减轻灾害风险后兵库战略框架(HFA2),就未来灾害风险科学发展与科技减灾趋势做了综合研判,提出加深对灾害系统复杂性的认识,即从灾害系统各要素的相互作用认识灾害系统的复杂性,从全球变化的区域特征与成因机制认识气候变化风险的复杂性,从区域发展水平与模式认识巨灾风险的复杂性。提出从灾害系统的复杂性厘定科技减轻灾害风险的战略与对策,即建立一体化的综合风险防御范式,建立多空间尺度的综合风险防范体系,建立多功能的巨灾风险防范金融体系,建立多利益相关者防范灾害风险的凝聚力模式,建立风险信息服务与对策仿真模拟综合集成平台。Based on a series of international conferences for establishing HFA2 framework, this paper analyzed key issues of frontier of disaster risk science, integrated disaster prevention and mitigation strategies and integrated disaster risk governance. The future direction of disaster risk science was comprehensively discussed according to the widely discussed Post-2015 Hyogo Framework for Action （HFA2）. It was proposed to deepen the cognition of the complexity of disaster system in terms of recognizing the complexity of disaster system from the interaction among various elements of the system, recognizing the complexity of climate change risk from the regional characteristics and formation mechanism of the global climate change and recognizing the complexity of the catastrophe risk from the regional development levels and patterns. Furthermore, it was suggested to make integrated disaster risk reduc- tion strategies and countermeasures from the perspective of the complexity of the disaster system, including the es- tablishment of regional integrated disaster risk governance framework to face climate change, the establishment of integrated disaster risk governance system in multi-spatial scale, the establishment of disaster risk governance finan- cial system integrating the insurance, bonds and lottery, the establishment of consilience mode in integrated risk governance considering multi-stakeholder and the establishment of modeling and simulation platform integrated dis- aster risk information services and disaster risk reduction strategies. Finally, it was pointed out that the assessment of disaster risk levels for different regions in multi-spatial scale can provide robust scientific support for integrated disaster risk governance of the world and regions, industries and enterprises so as to improve response to global change and guarantee a global and regional sustainable development.

关 键 词：灾害系统复杂性 防灾减灾 综合灾害风险防范 全球变化 可持续性 

分 类 号：P954[天文地球—自然地理学] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]