基于二次指数平滑法和触发器的滑坡位移预测预警  

Based on the quadratic exponential smoothing and trigger landslide displacement prediction of early warning

作　　者：严超[1] 吕青 

机构地区：[1]武汉轻工大学数学与计算机学院,湖北武汉430023 [2]长江海事局信息中心,湖北武汉430010

出　　处：《武汉轻工大学学报》2014年第4期74-79,共6页Journal of Wuhan Polytechnic University

基　　金：国家863计划资助项目(2012AA121303);国土资源部重大科学研究项目(SXKY3-3-2);国家973计划资助项目(2011CB710601)

摘　　要：为了快速、有效分析滑坡位移变形趋势,以二次指数平滑法为数学基础,对八字门滑坡90期累计位移数据进行拟合及预测分析。其拟合结果的平均位移绝对误差为12.745 mm,平均相对误差为0.071,说明预测结果与实际值较吻合。同时建立行级触发器,对模型预测值进行预判,实时获取滑坡实时演化的趋势。综合表明二次指数平滑法具有实用性,能快速预测滑坡位移,触发器的应用为滑坡实时预警的研究提供新的思路,是一种行之有效的稳定性快速判断方法。For rapid, effective analysis of landslide displacement deformation trend, based on the mathematics of quadratic exponential smoothing, eight door landslide 90 cumulative displacement data fitting and forecasting is an- alysed. The fitting result of displacement of the average absolute error is 12. 745 mm, the average relative error is 0.071, and that prediction results and the theoretical results fit well with the actual value row-level trigger is es- teablished at the same time, to anticipat model prediction, and to have real-time access to real-time landslide evo- lution trend. Comprehensive it shows that the secondary exponential smoothing method is practical, and can quickly predict the landslide displacement. The application of the trigger has provided the new mentality for the research of real-time landslide warning, which is a quick judgment method of an effective stability.

关 键 词：指数平滑法 滑坡 预测 触发器 

分 类 号：X4[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]