社会保险能降低员工辞职率吗?——中国综合社会调查的双重差分模型估计  

Would Social Insurance Reduce the Employee Quit Incidence in China?——Difference in Difference Estimation Using CGSS data

作　　者：阳义南[1] 连玉君[1] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学岭南学院,广东广州510275

出　　处：《经济管理》2015年第1期168-179,共12页Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )

基　　金：教育部高校博士学科点专项基金"推迟退休对养老金财富与基金的共同影响及协调机制研究"(20130171120041);国家社会科学基金青年项目"我国养老保险制度调节退休年龄与劳动力供给的机制及政策研究"(14CJY015)

摘　　要：近些年,由社会保险权益纠纷引发的员工辞职正在增多。本文对中国综合社会调查数据的Probit模型回归结果表明,养老保险、医疗保险、失业保险都能显著降低员工辞职率,且企业提供的保险种类越多,员工辞职的可能性越小。相对于没有社会保险的员工,有养老保险、医疗保险或失业保险的员工辞职率平均分别要低11.24%、14.92%和6.88%。进一步使用核匹配的双重差分模型(DID)估计了从没有保险到获得保险的状态变化对员工辞职率的影响,结果表明,获得养老保险、医疗保险或失业保险之后,员工的后续辞职率平均分别降低了17.3%、19.6%和14.7%。本文还发现,社会保险对降低私营企业及非正规工作的员工辞职率更有效。The collective employee quits incidence caused by social insurance or other compensation is in- creasing in recent years in China. Since the current coverage rate of the basic old age insurance, medical insurance and unemployment insurance is about 62% , 80% and 46% respectively, this article may infer there is some rela- tionship between the coverage rate of social insurance and the quit behavior of the employees. Henceforth, this arti- cle uses the China General Society Survey（CGSS） data to study the effect of social insurance coverage on the em- ployee quits. The structure of this article includes three parts. The first part is to test if there is a significant effect of social insurance coverage on the quit behavior of the employees. The second part is to compare statically the difference of quit behavior between the employees who covered by social insurance with those not covered. The third part is to estimate the quit rate changes after a employee acquire social insurance from a new company. The regres- sion results of the Probit Model demonstrate that the businesses can significantly reduce employee quit incidence by providing them with old age insurance, medical insurance and unemployment insurance. And the more kinds of in- surances provided, the lower quit rate of the employees would be. Compared to the employees who don＇t have social insurance, the employees would reduce quit rate by 11.24% , 14. 92% ,6.88% respectively by having old age in- surance, medical insurance or unemployment insurance. These empirical results correctly predict 79.31% of the employees＇ quit behaviors. This article also uses Difference-in-Difference model to estimate the quit rate changes when a employee acquire three kinds of insurance from the new company. This article use the Kernel Matching to get two groups of employees. The compared group is the employees who changed job, but didn＇t get social insurance in the former and new company. The treated group is the employees who get social insurance from the new company

关 键 词：辞职 养老保险 医疗保险 失业保险 

分 类 号：F840.61[经济管理—保险]