基于累积前景理论的电网物资供应商评价优化模型  

Evaluation and Optimization Model for Grid Material Supplier Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory

作　　者：李存斌[1] 冯霞[1] 祁之强 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206

出　　处：《陕西电力》2014年第11期29-33,共5页Shanxi Electric Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目资助(71271084;71071054);国家电网公司科技项目(521820140017)

摘　　要：随着坚强智能电网的建设,电网企业对电网物资的性能和综合要求越来越高,因此,作为电网物资供应链的起点,如何选择符合建设要求的电网物资供应商,关系到智能电网建设和电网稳定运行。为了更好地考虑决策者的风险态度和外部环境对决策者评价优选的影响,利用累积前景理论进行电网物资供应商评价优化研究。首先,对供应商评价指标属性值利用极差化法进行标准化处理,然后,利用熵权法得出各指标的权重,在此基础上求得供应商前景值和决策权重,最后求得各供应商的综合累积前景值,对其进行排序和比较,综合累积前景值最大的即为最优供应商。通过实例证明了模型的有效性和可行性,为电网企业进行供应商的评价优化提供了重要的参考。With the construction of strong smart grid,the requirements of the performance and comprehensive demand about grid materials are higher and higher.As the starting point at the grid material supply chain,how to choose the grid material supplier which can meet the construction requirements of the smart grid is a key to guarantee the safety and stability of the grid.In order to consider the risk attitude and the impact of external environment on the decision maker,the paper uses cumulative prospect theory to evaluate and optimize the grid material supplier.Firstly,a range method is used to standardize the supplier evaluation index attribute values.And then,the prospect value and weights of decision-making are obtained by using entropy weight method.Finally,the comprehensive cumulative prospect value of each supplier is acquired,and the optimal grid supplier can be selected by comparing the comprehensive cumulative prospect value.An example application proved that the method is feasible and effective.

关 键 词：电网物资供应商 累积前景理论 评价优化 

分 类 号：TM7[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] F273.7[经济管理—企业管理]