基于EVENT模型的单向循环航路侧向碰撞风险分析  

Analysis on Lateral Collision Risk of One- way Loop Route Based on EVENT Model

作　　者：朱博[1] 王莉莉[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学天津市空管运行规划与安全技术重点实验室,天津300300

出　　处：《航空计算技术》2014年第6期22-24,共3页Aeronautical Computing Technique

基　　金：国家自然科学基金委员会与中国民用航空局联合项目资助(61179042);国家自然科学基金项目资助(71171190);中央高校基本科研业务费项目资助(ZXH2012L005)

摘　　要：我国空域骨干航路拥挤不堪,一些支线航路的利用率却很低,单向循环航路的出现很好地解决了这一问题,对其进行安全评估是划设航路最重要的工作之一。在总结EVENT理论和相关文献的基础上,对单向循环航路和混合航路侧向碰撞风险进行比较分析,推算出目标安全等级下单向循环航路容量,并对单向循环航路侧向碰撞风险进行预测。结果表明,单向循环航路侧向碰撞风险远低于混合航路侧向碰撞风险,且未来10年均保持在比较稳定的安全水平。Backbone routes of China＇s airspace are crowded ,the utilization rate of regional routes is very low, the appearance of One- way loop route is a good solution to this problem, the most important task of setting up this route is to evaluate its safety. Based on EVENT theory and related literature, comparing a- nalysis of lateral collision risk between one- way loop route and mixed routes, calculating the capacity of one- way loop route at the target level of safety, and predict the lateral collision risk of one - way loop route. It is finally concluded that the lateral collision risk of One- way loop route is much lower than the lateral collision risk of mixed route,and it will maintain at the stable level of safety in the next 10 years.

关 键 词：单向循环航路 侧向碰撞风险 事件模型 间隔 航路容量 

分 类 号：V328[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]