纯电动汽车发展规模的系统动力学分析与仿真  

System Dynamic Analysis and Simulation of Pure Electric Vehicle Development Scale

作　　者：侯兵[1] 俞宁[1,2] 周康渠[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆理工大学机械工程学院,重庆400054 [2]湖南大学中国汽车技术与产业发展研究中心,长沙410012

出　　处：《重庆理工大学学报（自然科学）》2014年第12期23-29,40,共8页Journal of Chongqing University of Technology：Natural Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71173072)

摘　　要：通过系统分析影响纯电动汽车保有量的因素,建立了纯电动汽车保有量的系统动力学模型,仿真出纯电动汽车未来的发展趋势。仿真分析发现:未来纯电动汽车的发展规模将会一直保持增长趋势。尽管现阶段纯电动汽车发展速度较慢,财政补贴等政策因素是纯电动汽车发展的主要推动力,但随着财政补贴因素对纯电动汽车增长的影响力逐渐减弱,纯电动汽车将会实现高速发展,这主要得益于动力电池等关键技术的突破和充换电站等基础设施的建设。Through the systematic analysis of the influencing factors of Pure electric car ownershiP,a Pure electric car ownershiP system dynamics model was established,and the trend of the develoPment of Pure electric vehicles was simulated. Simulation analysis found that the develoPment scale of Pure electric vehicles will always maintain a growth trend in future. At Present,Pure electric vehicle devel-oPs slowly,and subsidies and other Policy factors are the main driving force in the develoPment of Pure electric vehicles. With the develoPment of key technology such as Power battery and charger in Power stations and other infrastructure construction,Pure electric vehicles begin to develoP raPidly, but at the same time,the influence of fiscal subsidy factors on growth of Pure electric vehicles become weaker,which shows that the Pure electric vehicles begin to realize its marketization develoPment.

关 键 词：纯电动汽车 发展规模 系统动力学 

分 类 号：U469[机械工程—车辆工程]