经济增长与税制改革对税收总量影响的实证分析  

The Empirical Analysis of the Tax Reform and Economic Growth on Tax Revenue

作　　者：杨亚坤[1] 杨顺勇[2] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学财政学院,北京102206 [2]上海应用技术学院经济与管理学院,上海201418

出　　处：《上海应用技术学院学报（自然科学版）》2014年第4期365-369,共5页Journal of Shanghai Institute of Technology: Natural Science

基　　金：上海市社科规划系列课题(2014XAJ002)

摘　　要：研究了1978-2010年税制改革对税收总量影响的机理.运用描述统计量、多线段线性回归模型、邹突变点检验等方法,从税收总额角度实证分析了税制改革是如何影响税收变动的.结果表明：每一次税制改革都是卓有成效的,但影响的程度不同,主要是因每次改革的侧重点不同引起的.因此,经济增长是影响税收总量的关键因素.The impact of tax reform on tax amount between 1978—2010was studied.By using the methods such as descriptive statistics,multi segments linear regression model,chow mutation point,the issue of how tax reform influences the tax revenue change was analyzed empirically from the perspective of total revenue.The analysis results showed the tax reform made each time was proved effective,but the influences were displayed in different levels.This was mainly due to the different focuses of each reform.The final conclusion was that economic growth was the key factor influencing the amount of tax.

关 键 词：税制改革 经济增长 邹突变点 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学]