基于突变理论的地铁安全模糊动态评价  

Assessment research on the fuzzy dynamic safety for subway system based on the mutation theory

作　　者：徐亚博[1] 葛悦[1] 王培怡[1] 谢昱姝[1] 宋冰雪[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京市劳动保护科学研究所,北京100054

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2014年第6期11-14,共4页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：北京市自然科学基金项目(9123027);灭火救援技术公安部重点实验室开放课题(KF2012001)

摘　　要：由于目前地铁常用评价方法中参数值的选取、各评价指标权重及评价因素重要性的确定等易受参评人员主观的影响,而导致评价难以获得客观结果,提出了基于突变理论的地铁安全模糊动态评价方法。从设备设施、人员、安全管理和外界环境4个方面分析了地铁系统安全影响因素,建立了地铁系统安全指标体系,并应用突变和模糊数学理论建立了综合评价模型。通过对评价目标进行多层次分解,根据突变理论归一化公式进行量化递归运算,计算出地铁安全总突变隶属函数值,从而实现了模糊动态分析与评判。实例应用表明,评价结果与实际情况基本一致,该方法合理可行,且评价结果具有较好的稳定性。The paper is to be engaged in an assessment research on the fuzzy dynamic safety for subway system based on the mutation the- ory. As a complicated interrelated system, the subway has to guaran- tee its successful operation in reliance on the cooperative efforts of so many factors and links. In this paper, we would like to establish a multi-level evaluation index system based on the theory of the safety system engineering, with the security situation of subway, including the four aspects, that is, the equipment to be used, the personnel needed, the security management and the external environment. In proceeding with our research, we have also set up a fuzzy dynamic e- valuation method and confirmed the basic calculation steps of dynamic evaluation on the basis of mutation theory and fuzzy mathematics. While inviting a few experts to help us to grade and score on the eval- uation index system, we have made a summary of the scoring situation of the security evaluation index system. With the help of the said ex- pelts for grading the basic indicator system, we have worked out the formula in achieving the confidence degree of each index for different policymakers and then obtained the initial membership function value by transferring the confidence degree values into a range of [0, 1 ] through a standardized transformation procedure. Actually, the initial membership function value has been worked out recursively by using the normalization formula. While working with the evaluation index system, the first indicators ＂workers＂ and ＂the environment＂ were beth consumed to have three secondary indicating values in the dove- tail mutation model in accordance with the catastrophe theory whereas that of the ＂equipment＂ was supposed to have four secondary indica- tors in the butterfly mutation model of the catastrophe theory. However, the first indicator of ＂safety managemeut＂ was supposed to have five secondary indicators by the hut mutation model in catastrophe theory. And, then, according to the evaluation

关 键 词：安全工程 地铁安全 预警 模糊 突变理论 

分 类 号：X928.03[环境科学与工程—安全科学]