风电容量可信度研究综述与展望  

Review and Prospect of Wind Power Capacity Credit

作　　者：张宁[1] 康重庆[1] 肖晋宇[2] 李晖[2] 王智冬[2] 史锐[2] 王帅[2] 

机构地区：[1]电力系统及发电设备控制和仿真国家重点实验室(清华大学电机系),北京市海淀区100084 [2]国网北京经济技术研究院,北京市昌平区102209

出　　处：《中国电机工程学报》2015年第1期82-94,共13页Proceedings of the CSEE

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51325702;51307092);国家电网公司科技项目~~

摘　　要：风电容量可信度定义为等可靠性前提下风电机组可以替代的常规机组的容量占风电装机容量的比例,是衡量风电对电力系统充裕度贡献的重要指标。随着我国风电的大规模并网,风电容量可信度将成为电力规划中电力平衡的重要指标。综述了风电容量可信度的定义与主要计算方法,总结了风电容量可信度的影响因素,分析了风电容量可信度的变化机理,展望了未来有待进一步研究的方向。The capacity credit of wind power is defined as the ratio of capacity which is equivalent as conventional generation to serve the load as a same reliability level. It is an important indicator measuring its contribution to the power system adequacy. In China, the capacity credit plays an increasing important role in power system planning as massive wind farms are integrating to the power system. This paper reviews the definitions and algorithms of the wind power capacity credit, and summarizes the factors that affect the value of capacity credit. The paper also gives insights on the mechanisms of how the parameters of power system and wind power output affect the value of its capacity credit. The potential research topics on wind power capacity credit are also proposed.

关 键 词：风电容量可信度 风电可信容量 风电场可靠性模型 可靠性 蒙特卡洛法 峰荷负荷率法 

分 类 号：TM74[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]