基于HP滤波法的河南省粮食产量波动分析  

Analysis of the fluctuation of grain production in Henan Province based on HP filter method

作　　者：效赛丽 朱秀英[1] 邓蒙芝[1] 贠鸿琬[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南农业大学,河南郑州450002

出　　处：《河南农业大学学报》2014年第6期785-789,共5页Journal of Henan Agricultural University

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金资助项目(2012M541978);河南省政府决策研究招标课题(201410)

摘　　要：本研究采用HP滤波法(由HODRIK和PRESCOTT提出)探讨河南省1978—2012年的粮食生产波动情况,并基于HP滤波法,探讨播种面积、单产及粮食品种结构对河南省粮食产量波动的影响.结果表明,河南省粮食产量波动具有周期性的特征,粮食单产是影响粮食产量的主要原因;从种植品种结构方面看,河南省小麦产量的波动是影响粮食总产量波动的主要因素.This paper used the HP filter method to investigate the fluctuation of grain production in Henan Province during 1978--2012. Based on the HP filtering method, the paper also investigated the effect of planting area, yield and the structure of grain varieties on the fluctuation of grain production in Henan Province. And the results showed that fluctuation of grain output in Henan Province is periodi- cal, and the per unit area yield of grain was the main factor affecting grain yield. From planting varie- ties of the structure, the fluctuation of wheat yield in Henan Province was the main factor affecting the grain yield fluctuation.

关 键 词：河南省 粮食 HP滤波 波动 

分 类 号：S24[农业科学—农业电气化与自动化]