基于模糊信息概率区间数的突发地质灾害降水因子评价研究  

Evaluation on Sudden Geological Disaster Precipitation Factors Based on Fuzzy Information Probability Interval Numbers

作　　者：彭贵芬[1] 刘盈曦[2] 

机构地区：[1]云南省气象台,云南昆明650034 [2]云南财经大学,云南昆明6502213

出　　处：《灾害学》2015年第1期1-4,共4页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41165004);云南财经大学科学研究基金(YC2013D11)

摘　　要：根据2010、2012两年云南省的820个地质灾害监测记录，基于模糊信息概率区间数的大小来开展降水量因子的评价研究。结果表明：突发地质灾害发生前10 d的单日降水量与灾害的关系很小，基本不能用于预警模型的建立和风险评价分析；累积降水量与突发地质灾害关系明显，特别是5～10 d的累积降水量预测概括率已达60％以上，可以用于突发地质灾害预警模型的建立和实际的监测预警；加衰减系数的有效累积降水量因子对突发地质灾害预测效果并无提升，与普通累积降水量因子相比并无优势。According to 820 monitoring records of geological disasters in 201 0 and 201 2 in Yunnan Province, study on evaluation of precipitation factors is carried out based on fuzzy information probability interval numbers. Results show that the daily rainfall 1 0 days before has weak relationship with disasters,so basically it cannot be used to build forewarning modes and in risk evaluation or risk analysis;accumulated rainfall has strong relationship with sudden geological disasters,especially that of the 5 -1 0 days has reached prediction generalization rate of more than 60%,so it can be used to build forewarning modes and to monitor and to warn early sudden geological disasters practically;effective accumulated rainfall factor added with attenuation coefficient has no effect on impro-ving prediction of sudden geological disasters,so it has no advantage compared with general accumulated rainfall factor.

关 键 词：模糊信息 概率区间数 突发地质灾害 降水因子 评价 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]