水利工程群应对干旱能力评价方法及应用  

Drought Coping Capacity of Water Resources Projects: Method and a Case Study in Zhangwei River Basin

作　　者：王刚[1,2] 严登华[2] 吴楠[3] 杨志勇[2] 韩冬梅[4] 刘少华[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京市环境保护科学研究院,北京100037 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所,北京100038 [3]中国水利水电科学研究院离退休处,北京100038 [4]河北工程大学水土保持和水电学院,河北邯郸056038

出　　处：《灾害学》2015年第1期39-44,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划("九七三"计划)项目"气候变化对黄淮海地区水循环的影响机理和水资源安全评估"(2010CB951102);国家自然科学基金面上项目"基于水资源系统的广义干旱风险评价与风险区划研究"(51279207)

摘　　要：基于水利工程群应对干旱能力的影响因素分析,从水利工程的布局、规模和运行管理两个层面构建水利工程群应对干旱能力评价指标体系。综合层次分析法和熵值法两种确定权重的方法,确定各评价指标的组合权重,采用模糊综合评价法构建了水利工程群应对干旱能力评价模型。该评价模型在漳卫河流域的应用结果表明,该流域整体应对干旱能力水平较弱,未来需要加强对现有水利工程体系的科学调度管理,并充分利用流域外调水提高干旱应对能力。Based on impact factors analysis of drought coping capacity of water resources projects,an evalua-tion index system is established which includes two aspects coving the location and scale as well as operation and management of projects.The combining weight of each evaluation index is then determined by using analytic hierar-chy process （AHP）method and entropy method.An evaluation model is further put forward by using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.The model is applied to Zhangwei River Basin,which is shown in the results to be of an overall weak grade of drought coping capacity.The operation and management of the current water re-sources projects should be strengthened in future.Besides,water diversion outside the basin is essential to improve the drought coping ability.

关 键 词：水利工程群 干旱应对能力 层次分析法 熵值法 模糊综合评价 漳卫河流域 

分 类 号：P42[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]