基于PPD的辽宁省暴雨灾害风险分析  

Analysis on Rainstorm Disaster Risk in Liaoning Province Based on PPD Model

作　　者：王菜林 任学慧[1] 李颖[2] 郭恩亮 

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学城市与环境学院,辽宁大连116029 [2]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [3]东北师范大学环境科学学院自然灾害研究所,吉林长春130024

出　　处：《灾害学》2015年第1期217-221,共5页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划(2010CB951102);国家自然科学基金项目(41371495)

摘　　要：根据辽宁省1976－2006年逐日降水和暴雨灾害损失数据，基于自然灾害风险理论，利用PPD（可能性－概率分布），分析不同等级暴雨发生的可能性；通过建立灾损指标体系获得暴雨灾损指数，结合ArcGIS技术，进行了辽宁省暴雨灾害风险评价与区划。结果表明：①辽宁省暴雨发生的可能性，随暴雨等级的增加而降低，主要发生一到四级暴雨，五级暴雨很少见，而发生2～5级暴雨概率基本由东南向西北递减（一级由西北向东南递减）；②全省而言，暴雨灾害损失及风险与暴雨发生可能性区域分布特征总体吻合，即呈现南高北低、东高西低、由东南向西北递减的趋势；③PPD适用于风险分析中计算致灾因子发生的可能性，因为以该模型为基础的研究结果与近年来辽宁省暴雨发生风险事实一致。According to the data of daily precipitation and rainstorm disaster loss in 1 976 -2006 of Liaoning province and based on the theory of natural disaster risk,the probability of occurrence of different levels rainstorm are analyzed by PPD model.Acquiring index of rain storm disaster by establishing damage index system,combined with ArcGIS Technology,assessment and regionalization of rainstorm disaster risk of Liaoning province are done. Results show that：①The possibility of occurrence of in Liaoning Province decrease as the rainstorm level increase. Level 1 to level 4 is mainly detected but level 5 is merely detected,furthermore,the property of rain storm from level 2 to level 5 is mainly decreased from southeast to northwest （level 1 decrease from northwest to southeast）;②As for the whole province,the risk of rainstorm disaster and loss is grandly coincided with features of attributions, which is increasing from north to south,from west to east,decrease from southeast to northwest;③PPD model is suitable to calculate possibility of factors of disaster in that the consequence of research based on this is coincidence with risks of Liaoning rain storm.

关 键 词：暴雨灾害 风险 辽宁省 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]