基于云模型和熵权法的巢湖流域防洪减灾能力评估  

Capacity Evaluation of Flood Disaster Prevention and Reduction in Chaohu Basin Based on Cloud Model and Entropy Weight Method

作　　者：孙鸿鹄 程先富[1,2] 倪玲[3] 朱敏[3] 

机构地区：[1]安徽师范大学国土资源与旅游学院,安徽芜湖241003 [2]安徽自然灾害过程与防控研究省级实验室,安徽芜湖241003 [3]安徽师范大学数学计算机科学学院,安徽芜湖241003

出　　处：《灾害学》2015年第1期222-227,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41271516)

摘　　要：防洪减灾能力评估是洪涝灾害管理急需解决的重大问题之一。从防洪除涝能力、监测预警能力、抢险救灾能力及灾害管理能力4个方面来构建指标体系,建立基于云模型和熵权法的巢湖流域防洪减灾能力评估模型,对整个流域以及流域内各县市的防洪减灾能力进行评估,并与通过组合赋权法及最优分割法得到的结果进行验证对比。以期为防洪减灾能力评估提供新的思路,对巢湖流域的防洪减灾能力建设提供科学依据。研究结果表明:巢湖流域整体防洪减灾能力属于中等偏上水平,但流域内部差异明显;其中合肥市辖区、和县的防洪减灾能力属于高水平;巢湖市、含山县处于中等水平;肥西县和庐江县位于较低水平;肥东县、无为县、舒城县的防洪减灾能力则最低。Capacity evaluation on flood prevention and disaster reduction is one of the major problems of flood disaster management.Considering from four capacities as of flood disaster prevention and waterlogging control,mo-nitoring and early warning,emergency rescue and disaster relief and disaster management,the index system is con-structed to establish the evaluation model based on cloud model and entropy weight method to evaluate the capacity of flood disaster prevention and reduction of the whole basin and the counties and cities in Chaohu basin.And by contrasted those obtained by combination weighting method and the optimal segmentation method,it is expected to provide new ideas for capacity evaluation of flood prevention and disaster reduction and scientific basis for capacity building of flood prevention and disaster reduction in Chaohu Basin.The results show that：Chaohu basin for flood disaster prevention and reduction capacity belongs to middle level and above,but internal differences of the basin are significant;the flood disaster prevention and reduction ability of Hefei City area belongs to high level;Chaohu City,Hanshan County are in the middle level;Feixi county and Lujiang county are located in the lower level;the Capacity of flood disaster prevention and reduction in Feidong County,Wuwei County,Shucheng county are the lowest.

关 键 词：洪涝灾害 防洪减灾能力 云模型 熵权法 巢湖流域 安徽 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]