基于用地混合熵的城市交通生成预测模型  

Generation Forecasting Model of Urban Transportation Based on Entropy of Mixed-use Land

作　　者：李永晟[1] 夏超[1] 

机构地区：[1]长安大学,西安710064

出　　处：《天津城建大学学报》2014年第5期328-331,共4页Journal of Tianjin Chengjian University

摘　　要：以城市规划年土地利用为切入点,以土地利用规模、性质以及片区土地利用混合度为基础,采用回归分析方法,得到不同用地的出行吸引权重,并引入用地混合熵的概念,建立了城市交通生成预测模型.模型应用于陕西西安市主城区规划年需求预测分析,预测结果表明:不同片区的用地混合程度会导致需求的差异性;除雁塔区以外,其他四个交通大区出行发生量与吸引量误差均在±5%以内,具有较好的可行性和可靠性.Considering the urban planning of land use, the present authors establish a model of urban transportation based on the scale and nature of land use, and mixing degree of land use by obtaining the trip attracting rate per standard land unit through regression analysis, and by introducing the concept of entropy of land use. The model has been applied to the prac- tice of annual demand forecast analysis of the planning of the main city area of Xi＇an in Shaanxi province. The forecast re- sults show that differences in the mixing degree of different patches of land will result in different demand. Except Yanta Area, the deviation between the transportation generation and attraction of other areas is less than ± 5%, which has good feasibility and reliability.

关 键 词：交通生成预测 回归分析 用地混合熵 需求预测 

分 类 号：U491.14[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]