房价波动、货币政策立场识别及其反应研究  

The Fluctuation of House Prices,Stance and Response of Monetary Policy

作　　者：谭政勋 王聪 

机构地区：[1]大学经济学院金融研究所与金融系,暨南510632

出　　处：《经济研究》2015年第1期67-83,共17页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家社科基金《我国房价稳定与银行稳定的货币政策研究》(12BJY161)资助

摘　　要：本文运用构建的后顾型结构模型,推导包含房价的最优利率规则与货币供应量规则,并把泰勒规则、货币政策如何反映房价的间接和直接观融于一体。从代理指标和计量方法上减轻货币政策的内生性并识别了货币政策立场,实证结果没有出现"价格之谜"。这既与理论更为贴近,又与我国货币政策实践及宏观经济运行状况相一致,结论更为可靠。我国货币政策应该对房价波动做出间接反应,这有利于维护政策的连续性及经济的稳定性。如果货币政策能够充分利用房价波动的当前信息与过往信息,而不只是过往信息,紧缩性货币政策能更有效抑制产出、房价和通货膨胀;而宽松货币政策能够减小宏观经济波动。货币供应量对通货膨胀、产出缺口波动作出充分反应,但对房价的反应不充分,利率对三个变量的反应均不充分。In the paper, we build a backward-looking model and derive both the optimal interest rate rules and money supply rules including house prices. The derived interest rate rules can accommodate Taylor rule and the view of whether monetary policy should respond to house prices directly or indirectly. The proper monetary policy index and identification method reduces the endogeneity of monetary policy, so the empirical results are much reliable without the “ price puzzle”, which are consistent with theory and the practice of monetary policy and macroeconomic performance. If monetary policy responds to the fluctuation of house prices indirectly, it will be helpful to maintain the continuity of policy and stability of real economic. Moreover, by fully employing both the past and current information from house price fluctuation, contractional monetary policies might have a better effect to keep macro-economic situations under control; On the contrary, it might be better to take expansionary monetary policies to stimulate economy. By contrast, the central bank reacts to the volatility of inflation and output less sufficiently through interest rate, while more sufficiently through money supply.

关 键 词：货币政策反应 货币政策立场 房价波动 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济] F822.0F224