基于部分数据缓冲的GM(1,1)模型预测精度研究  

Study on the Prediction Accuracy of GM(1,1) Based on the Partial Data Buffering

作　　者：郭三党[1,2] 刘思峰[1] 李晔[2] 刘芳[2] 董奋义[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京210016 [2]河南农业大学信息与管理科学学院,河南郑州450002

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2014年第23期23-27,共5页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：江苏省研究生培养创新工程(CXLX12_0177)

摘　　要：根据灰色系统理论中新信息优先利用原理,在对缓冲算子和数据灰色序∥生成研究的基础上,借用计量经济学虚拟变量的思想,构造一类利用缓冲算子对单调数列部分数据进行灰色序列生成的新方法,有效解决了冲击扰动数据序列在建模预测过程中常常出现的定量预测结果与定性分析结论不符的问题,实例分析表明,这类新的方法能显著提高GM(1,1)模型的预测精度.According to the theory of prior using of new information, based on research of buffer operator and data grey sequences generated, borrowing thoughts of virtual variable from econometrics, a new method about grey sequence generated of monotone sequence using buffer operator was constructed. The problem that there are some contradictions between quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis in pretreatment for vibration data sequences is resolved effectively. An example shows that this kind of new method increases the forecast precision of GM（1, 1） remarkably.

关 键 词：灰色系统 缓冲算子 GM(1 1)模型 预测精度 

分 类 号：N941.5[自然科学总论—系统科学]