个体暴露边界比在铅膳食暴露健康风险评估中的应用  

The Application of Individual Margin of Exposure in the Health Risk Assessment of Dietary Exposure to Lead

作　　者：金英良[1] 张亚非[1] 闵捷[1] 孙金芳[1] 刘沛[1] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学公共卫生学院,210009

出　　处：《中国卫生统计》2014年第6期943-945,共3页Chinese Journal of Health Statistics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(81172769)

摘　　要：目的采用概率风险评估,探索个体暴露边界比方法在铅膳食暴露评估中的应用。方法采用BBN模型构建中国人群膳食铅长期摄入量,通过Monte Carlo抽样模拟人群个体临界剂量分布和人群摄入量分布,整合个体暴露边界比分布。个体暴露边界比小于1的人群认为存在风险,而大于1的人群可认为安全。结果 BBN模型显示人群暴露量第25-99.9百分位数,2-6岁膳食铅摄入量为2.290-8.870μg/kg/d,IMoE为0.122-2.326,IMoE值小于1的比例为97.94%;7-17岁膳食铅摄入量为1.593-6.169μg/kg/d,IMoE为0.350-6.690,IMoE值小于1的比例为75.35%;18岁以上人群膳食铅摄入量为1.121-4.342μg/kg/d,IMoE为0.497-9.505,人群小于1的比例为59.08%。结论人群膳食铅暴露量和个体间健康效应的敏感性变异可通过分布的形式进行量化,实现危害特征描述和暴露评估的整合。Objective To explore the approach of individual margin of exposure in the application of exposure to lead by using probabilistic risk assessment. Methods The betabinomial-normal（ BBN） model was used to build the long-term dietary intake of Chinese population. By Monte Carlo methods,the distributions of individual critical effect dose（ ICED） and individual exposure（ IEXP） w ere sampled and combined into a distribution of the individual margin of exposure（ IMoE）. The population of IMoE distribution less than 1 was considered as risk situations,but the population of IMoE distribution was greater than 1that represented safety. Results In the group aged 2 to 6 years from 25 th percentile to 99. 9th percentile,the dietary intake of lead was betw een 2. 290 and 8. 870μg / kg / d and IM o E was betw een 0. 122 and 2. 326,and the proportion of IM o E below 1 w as97. 94%. In the group aged 7 to 17 years with the same percentile range,the dietary intake of lead w as between 1. 593 and6. 169μg / kg / d and IM o E w as betw een 0. 350 and 6. 690,and the proportion of IM o E below 1 w as 75. 35%. In the group older than 18 years w ith the same percentile range,the dietary intake of lead w as betw een 1. 121 and 4. 342μg / kg / d and IM o E was betw een 0. 497 and 9. 505,and the proportion of IM o E below 1 was 59. 08%. Conclusion The dietary intake of population and the intra-species variation in sensitivity of health effect in the form of probability distributions are quantified,w hich integrates the hazard characterization and exposure assessment.

关 键 词：暴露边界比 临界暴露概率 铅 

分 类 号：R155.3[医药卫生—营养与食品卫生学]