集装箱船舶货物运输风险云评价方法  

Cloud-Model-Based Assessment of Cargo Transportation Risk for Container Ships

作　　者：许玲[1] 胡甚平[1] 轩少永[1] 吴建军[1] 傅俊杰[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学商船学院,上海201306 [2]宁波海事局,浙江宁波315020

出　　处：《中国航海》2014年第4期69-73,78,共6页Navigation of China

基　　金：浙江海事局科研项目(2014-25);上海海事大学研究生创新基金(GK2013028);上海海事大学校基金(20120057)

摘　　要：为合理评价集装箱船舶货物运输风险程度,需解决风险评价过程中的模糊性和随机性定量化问题。将《国际安全管理规则》与国际标准化组织体系贯彻实施于集装箱货物运输安全管理工作中,确定通用要素、专属要素、扩展要素的集装箱船舶货物运输风险评价体系。运用云变换的数据驱动法确定每个评价指标对应的权重云,并将其与集装箱船舶内外审评价结果生成的云图结合,最终根据云交换规则对其进行定量评价。结果表明,运用该评价方法可以合理评价和诊断集装箱船舶货物运输的风险程度。To cope with the fuzziness and randomness in risk assessment of cargo transportation for container ships, the International Management Code for the Safe Operation of Ships and for Pollution Prevention （ISM） and the international organization for standardization （ISO） rules about container cargo transportation security administration are implemented to determine the common, exclusive and extension elements. The weight clouds of the indexes are determined by the datadrive approach of cloud transformation. The resultant cloud is calculated according to the related weight clouds and the index estimate clouds. The overall risk level is obtained through back cloud transformation. Test results show that the evaluation method is more effective and accurate in dealing with problems such as the risk evaluation of container transport.

关 键 词：水路运输 集装箱船舶 货物运输 风险评价 云模型 

分 类 号：U695.2[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程] U698[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]