基于历史数据的中国台风灾害孕灾环境敏感性分析  

Analysis of Typhoon Disaster-Informative Environment Sensitivity Based on Historical Data in China

作　　者：殷洁[1,2] 吴绍洪[2] 戴尔阜[2] 

机构地区：[1]南通大学地理科学院,城市与区域发展规划研究院,江苏南通226007 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京100101

出　　处：《地理与地理信息科学》2015年第1期101-105,共5页Geography and Geo-Information Science

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划(2013BAK05B04;2008BAH31B01;2009BAC61B05);国家自然科学基金项目(40830741)

摘　　要：根据台风路径数据,通过计算评价单元内不同强度台风灾害发生频数和路径长度,综合表征台风孕灾环境敏感性的大小。结果表明:1)在四个强度台风条件下,敏感性最高的区域位于海南省、广东省沿海、福建省和浙江省沿海,随着台风灾害强度增强,影响范围呈现向北、向内陆延伸、扩展的趋势;2)台风灾害强度达到中度时,高敏感性的区域减少,低敏感性的区域面积大幅度增加,同时,台风路径东移明显,福建所受影响加重,海南和广东影响有所减小。China is a country repeatedly hit by landfall typhoons every year,which caused great losses on population and social property for their high densities in East China. Typhoon disaster-formative environment analysis is an important work for risk assessment and avoiding losses. In this paper, typhoon disaster-informative environment sensitivity was analyzed with the geo- graphical information system technology,using typhoon track line data. Different intensity typhoon disasters sensitivities were calculated by means of the frequencies and track line lengths in each county, based on 471 historical typhoon track line data from 1949 to 2008. The results showed that： 1） in four situations of slight,light, medium and sever typhoon disasters, the highest sen- sitivity regions were in Hai nan Province, coastal of Guangdong Province, Fujian Province, and coastal of Zhejiang Province. The affected regions extended northward and inland, with typhoon intensity increasing from slight to severe. 2） The area of high sen- sitivity was shrinking with typhoon intensity enhancing up to medium, however, the area of low sensitivity expanded sharply. In the case of medium, influence areas in Fujian was increasing, but decreasing in Hainan and Guangdong Province, for typhoon track lines eastward-moving obviously.

关 键 词：台风 孕灾环境敏感性 历史数据 频数 路径长度 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]