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机构地区:[1]中国科学院东亚区域气候一环境重点实验室/中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京100029 [2]海南省气象台,海南海口570203 [3]云浮市气象局,广东云浮527300
出 处:《热带气象学报》2014年第6期1098-1106,共9页Journal of Tropical Meteorology
基 金:国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2010CB428502;2011CB952003);财政部/科技部公益性行业(气象)科研专项GYHY201006014;国家自然科学基金项目41275082共同资助
摘 要:利用华南地区51个站点的逐日小雨降水和低云量等气象资料,采用气候趋势系数、一元回归和相关分析等方法,分析了小雨降水和低云量的年际、季节的长期趋势特征,同时结合华南地区气溶胶光学厚度(AOD)、气溶胶指数和国民生产总值(GDP)等资料进行原因探讨。(1)华南地区小雨日和低云量呈相反的变化趋势(小雨日下降,低云量上升),而且表现为东部高于西部,沿海高于内陆的分布特征。(2)小雨日和低云量的回归系数分别为-4.88 d/(10 a)和1.17%/(10 a)。(3)春季和夏季小雨日变化相对较小,但是对年小雨日贡献较大,而低云量四季均呈现相反的上升趋势。(4)华南地区的两个AOD大值区分别位于广西中部到南部沿海和广东珠三角地区,其中珠三角地区AOD高达0.7以上,气溶胶指数也表现为沿海地区高于内陆地区的分布特征。近27年华南地区的气溶胶指数呈现波动的上升趋势,与同期的小雨日呈负相关关系,而低云量呈正相关关系,近28年华南地区GDP一直处于明显上升趋势,其中以广东省增加最明显。The data set of light rain days and low cloud cover at 51 stations in South China and the method of linear regression and correlative analysis were used to analyze the characteristics of light rain days and low cloud cover from the aspects of annual variation and long-term seasonal change. The results are shown as follows. (1) The trends of light rain days and low cloud cover over South China are opposite (light rain days tend to decrease while low cloud cover tends to increase), and the value in the east and the coastal area is higher than in the west and the inland area. (2) The regression coefficients of light rain days and low cloud cover during 1960--2005 are 4.88 d/(10 yr) and 1.14%/(10 yr) respectively, which all pass the 0.001 significance level. (3) Variations of light rain days are small in spring and summer relatively, but their contributions are larger to the annual value than to the autumn and winter ones, and opposite to light rain days, low cloud cover tends to increase in the past 46 years. (4) There are two regions with large values of AOD, which are distributed in central and southern part of Guangxi and Pearl River Delta (PRD), and the value of AOD in PRD is more than 0.7. The aerosol index distributed in the coastal area is higher than in the inland area, which is similar to the light rain days and low cloud cover over South China. The aerosol index in South China was increasing in fluctuation during the past 27 years. The GDP of three provinces in South China kept increasing significantly during the past 28 years, especially in Guangdong, which also proves that there is a good simultaneous correlation between the light rain days and low cloud cover and the release of aerosols over South China during 1960 to 2005.
关 键 词:小雨日 低云量 气溶胶光学厚度 气溶胶指数 华南地区
分 类 号:X16[环境科学与工程—环境科学]
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