基于决策树模型的抗滑桩破坏概率  

Failure probability of anti-slide pile based on decision tree method

作　　者：乔建平[1,2] 黄栋[1,2] 李倩倩[1,2,3] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地表过程与山地灾害重点实验室,四川成都610041 [2]中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所,四川成都610041 [3]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2014年第4期6-10,共5页The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control

基　　金：973项目(2010CB731504);科技部国际合作项目(2013DFA21720);国家科技支撑计划课题(2011BAK12B01)

摘　　要：本文以抗滑桩桩顶位移变形和滑坡地表变形为研究目标,采用决策树模型分别构成抗滑桩桩顶设计位移量、实测位移量、滑坡地表破坏概率的三个决策方案枝,以及抗滑桩破坏概率分析决策终结点的决策树概率分析模型。从而建立了一种分析抗滑桩可靠性的判断方法。该方法的特点是将桩顶位移变形特点与滑坡地表宏观变形现象相结合,对抗滑桩的可靠性作出综合判断,其结果更具合理性。In order to research the displacement of the top of the anti-stide pile and surface deformation of the landslide, this paper introduces decision tree method to build three Decision-making plan branches including designer displacement of the anti-slide pile,the measured displacement,the failure probability of the andslide surface and the probability analysis model of decision tree including decision-making endpoints analyzed by failure probability of anti-slide pile. As a result. , a judgment method to analyze the reliability of anti-slide pile is found. Its specialties are using the deformation features of the top of the anti-slide plie combined with visible deformation phenomenon to estimate the reliability of anti-slide pile synthetically . And its result is more reasonable.

关 键 词：决策树 抗滑桩 可靠性 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学]