基于能值的天津滨海新区可持续发展动力学分析  

Dynamic Analysis of Sustainable Development in Tianjin Binhai New Area Based on Emergy

作　　者：李春发[1] 曹莹莹[1] 杨建超[1] 韩芳旭[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津理工大学管理学院,天津300384

出　　处：《大连理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2015年第1期12-18,共7页Journal of Dalian University of Technology(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目:"促进生态文明建设的产业结构研究"(08BJY004);天津市"五个一批"人才资助项目:"基于区域创新网络的天津市产业结构优化升级研究"(2013RC01)

摘　　要：利用能值理论与系统动力学建模方法，设计了当前发展模式、经济优先型、环境优先型和可持续发展型四种情景，对天津滨海新区2012～2032年经济‐环境系统的可持续性进行了仿真与评价。结果表明：当前发展模式与经济优先型下，系统污染重、能值产出率低、环境负荷大，新区经济‐环境系统发展的可持续性差；在环境优先型下，环境质量明显优于其他三种方案，但模拟期内，新区GDP相对较低，经济效益差，系统可持续发展潜力小；可持续发展型下，系统经济效益与环境效益呈现协调增长趋势。因此，天津滨海新区应优化产业布局，大力发展高新技术产业与第三产业；调整资源利用结构，增加可更新资源投入比例；加大环保投资力度，治理污染源头，促进新区健康可持续发展。Applying emergy analysis and system dynamics method ,four scenarios of current development ,eco‐nomic priority ,environment priority and sustainable development are designed to simulate and evaluate sustain‐able development of the economy‐environment system in Tianjin Binhai New Area （TBNA ） during 2012 and 2032 .It is show n that under the current development and economic priority scenario ,there exist serious pollu‐tion ,lower emergy yield ratio and excessive environment loading ratio in TBNA ,which is predicted to be a lower sustainable development level ;under the environment priority ,environment quality is better than the other scenarios ,but it has a lower GDP and poorer economic benefits ;the potential of sustainable development is small .However ,the sustainable development scenario appears to be a growth of coordination both in the e‐conomic and environmental benefits during the simulation period .

关 键 词：经济-环境系统 系统动力学 能值分析 可持续发展 天津滨海新区 

分 类 号：F293.1[经济管理—国民经济] X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]