基于集对分析的降水酸度及水质相似预测模型研究  

Study on the similar forecast models of precipitation acidity and water quality based on set pair analysis

作　　者：徐源蔚 李祚泳[1] 汪嘉杨[1] 

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程学院资源环境学院,四川成都610225

出　　处：《环境污染与防治》2015年第2期59-62,88,共5页Environmental Pollution & Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(No.51179110;No.51209024)

摘　　要：应用集对分析法刻画历史样本之间的相似性,用多个最相似的历史样本的加权平均值作为当前样本预测值,建立了基于集对分析的降水酸度及水质相似预测模型(SFM-SPA),并运用该模型进行了降水酸度及水质预测的实例验证。结果表明,在主要影响因子选择适当、历史样本的代表性和相似性较好等限定条件下,利用模型进行环境预测是可行的,它较直观、计算简便,为环境污染预测提供了新的途径。This paper set up the similar forecast models of precipitation acidity and water quality based on the characteristics of identical,discrepancy and contrary sides of set pair analysis, which used the weighted average value of some similar historical samples as the predictive value of current sample because of the similarity among the historical samples. Then the model to predictive tests of precipitation acidity and water quality was used in some areas. The results showed that the similar forecast model based on set pair analysis was used for environmental prediction with certain conditions, such as the choice of the appropriate factors, the good representation and similarity of the historical sample,and so on. The model was intuitive and simple for computation. It provided a new way for the prediction of environmental pollution.

关 键 词：集对分析 相似预测 降水酸度 水质预测 

分 类 号：X831[环境科学与工程—环境工程] X507