基于灰色关联分析的涞水县土地可持续利用评价  

Evaluation on Sustainable Land Use of Laishui County Based on the Grey Correlation

作　　者：杨皓[1] 张贵军[1] 葛智超[1] 徐大海[2] 朱永明[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北农业大学国土资源学院,河北保定071001 [2]石家庄市国土资源局,石家庄050021

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2014年第24期6199-6203,共5页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：河北省社科联社会科学发展研究课题(201203073);河北省科技厅软科学研究计划项目(114072172D);河北省社会科学基金项目(HB12SH044)

摘　　要：以河北省涞水县为例，以2002～2006年在环首都地区大规模开展的生态退耕为背景，从生产性、稳定性、保护性、经济可行性和社会可接受性五方面建立土地可持续利用评价指标体系．针时涞水县退耕之前、退耕期、退耕巩固期，运用熵值法计算指标权重，采用灰色关联法测算土地可持续利用水平。测算结果表明：2001～2012年，涞水县土地可持续利用水平呈波动上升趋势，年平均增长率为5．72％；2001～2006年涞水县土地可持续利用水平为较低，2007-2012年其土地可持续利用水平为中等：其中经济可行性对涞水县的土地可持续利用水平贡献最大，且需要保持增长的态势，另外波动较大的稳定性、保护性和生产性是综合关联度呈波动上升态势的原因．这三方面都需要进一步优化改善．保持稳定。Taking Laishui county as the research object, and taking the carried out large-scale withdrawing from cultivated land for ecology around the capital region from 2002 to 2006 as the background, the authors establish the sustainable land use evaluation index system from five aspects the productivity, stability, protection, economic feasibility and social acceptability, in view of the periods before, in and after the withdrawing from cultivated land, using the entropy method to calculate index weight, and adopting the grey correlation method to calculate the land sustainable utilization level. The results of the study show that from 2001 to 2012, the sustainable land use level in Laishui appears rising trend with fluctuation, and the average annual growth rate is 5.72%. Laishui county is in the lower levels of sustainable land use from 2001 to 2006, and in the medium level from 2007 to 2012. Among them economic feasibility is the largest contribution to the sustainable land use level of Laishui county, and it needs to maintain growth momentum. And stability, protective and productive which have a larger fluctuation are comprehensive correlation fluctuation reasons for the rise, these three aspects needing to be further optimized to improve and maintain stablility.

关 键 词：退耕 土地可持续利用 熵值法 灰色关联 涞水县 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]