微分响应在降雨误差修正中的应用  

The Application of Differential Response in Rainfall Error Correction

作　　者：杨姗姗[1] 包为民[1,2] 杨小强[1] 阙家骏 束慧连 李佳佳[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,南京210098 [2]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,南京210098

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2015年第1期75-79,共5页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划资助项目(CXZZ13_0250);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51279057/41371048);国家自然科学基金青年项目(40901015);国家自然科学基金重大项目子项目(51190091);国家重点实验室专项基金(2009585412)

摘　　要：误差修正是实时洪水预报研究和应用中的重要内容,从修正模型降雨输入角度出发,提出了一种基于微分响应的降雨误差修正方法,并通过实例论证了该方法修正降雨量的适用性。该方法通过计算降雨所对应模型的微分响应来修正降雨,从而修正出口断面流量过程。将该修正方法结合新安江模型,对闽江建阳流域的19场历史洪水进行了有效性检验,结果表明:此方法对洪量、洪峰的修正效果明显,且能够显著提高洪水预报的合格率,修正后合格率由63.2%提高到94.7%。Error correction is an important part in the study and application of the real-time flood forecasting system.From the perspective of correcting the rainfall input of a model,a new error correction method based on the differential response of rainfall（DRR）is introduced in this paper.And real case study demonstrates the method＇s applicability in rainfall error correction.The differential response of rainfall corresponding to the model is calculated in the method,therefore the updating rainfall is calculated,which finally corrects the outlet discharge.Combining the Xin＇anjiang model,the method is applied to 19 floods in Jianyang Basin of Minjiang River.The results indicate that：this method has a significant effect on correcting the flood volume and peak,and the method can dramatically improve the accuracy of real-time flood forecasting with the fact that the ratio of qualified flood increased from 63.2% to94.7% after being corrected by the new method.

关 键 词：洪水预报 误差修正 微分响应 新安江模型 反演问题 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]