信阳市耕地压力指数动态分析与预测  

Analysis on Pressure Index of Cultivated Land and Its Predictionin Xinyang

作　　者：周永昇 董奋义[1] 麻晓梦[1] 肖美丹[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南农业大学信息与管理科学学院,郑州450002

出　　处：《科技和产业》2015年第2期106-109,共4页Science Technology and Industry

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(G030503)

摘　　要：通过对2003-2012年信阳市耕地压力指数的动态分析,发现信阳市耕地压力指数呈现出先下降后趋于稳定的趋势,说明信阳市粮食生产处于相对安全状态。并利用灰色系统理论对影响信阳市耕地压力指数的实际人均耕地面积、粮食单产等因素的发展变化进行了GM(1,1)模型预测。在此基础上测算了未来信阳市耕地压力指数的变化。最后,提出了加大农业科研投入,引导农民充分开发非耕地资源和未利用土地等进行耕地保护的具体政策建议。By the dynamic analysis of the cropland pressure index of Xinyang in 2003-2012,it is found that the pressure index maintains stability after falling trend.This indicates the grain production is in a relatively safe state in Xinyang.This paper predicted the development of the area of per capita cultivated land,the grain yield and other factors influenced the farmland pressure index of Xinyang by using Grey Theory GM（1,1）model,and on this basis calculated the change of Xinyang cultivated land pressure index in the future.Finally,we put forward some specific policy recommendations for cultivated land protection like increasing the input of agricultural scientific research,to guide farmers to fully develop non-cultivated land and unused land resources.

关 键 词：信阳市 耕地压力指数 GM(1 1)模型 预测 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]