通辽市中等以上降水总量的时空变化分析  

The Spatio-temporal Change Analysis of Above Medium Precipitation in the Southeast of Inner Mongolia

作　　者：王育军[1] 邵学鹏[1] 姚腾飞[1] 赵晓杰[1] 郭英才[1] 李春云[1] 包永莲 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古通辽市气象局,内蒙古通辽028000

出　　处：《内蒙古民族大学学报（自然科学版）》2014年第6期662-667,共6页Journal of Inner Mongolia Minzu University：Natural Sciences

摘　　要：利用通辽市七个站53a(1959—2011年)逐日降水量资料进行中等以上降水总量的时空变化特征分析.结果表明,地区平均和各地Rj≥10.0波动性大,而且各地差异较大,共同点是均为减少趋势,其中地区平均和库伦的减少趋势在0.05显著性水平以上,倾向率分别为-13.0mm/10a和-19.0mm/10a,开鲁通过了0.10水平检验,其余地区不明显;各地均符合赫斯特现象,且Hurst指数均大于0.5,预计未来将维持减少趋势,其中大沁他拉Hurst指数最大,未来维持减少趋势较强劲,库伦最小,其余在二者之间;阶段性明显,F值超过了0.001极显著水平,53a经历了多水—少水—多水—少水四个阶段;突变情况各地有较大差异,地区平均在1992年发生了突变,突变前后平均值相差37.8mm,科尔沁发生了两次突变,库伦、保康、鲁北发生了一次突变,其余三地未发生突变;地区平均值有三个周期,最明显周期为52a,次周期为4.33a,三周期对应2.17a.Based on the daily precipitation data collected from seven stations in the Tongliao during 1959-2011 years,the spatial and temporal patterns of above medium precipitation were analyzed.The results show that the Rj≥10.0 of average and around area were large fluctuations and have a decreasing trend in common.The decreased tendency of the regional average and Kulun was above the significance level of 0.05,the tendency rate of them was-13.0mm/10 a and-19.0mm/10 a respectively.The test level of all regions was not obvious except Kailu which was above 0.10.All stations were in accordance with Hurst phenomenon,and Hurst index was greater than 0.5,which was expected to remain a decreasing trend.Among these stations,the Hurst index of Daqintala is the largest,which will maintain a relavively strong reducing trend in future,and the Hurst index of kulun is the minimum.The results have revealed that they have apparent phases,and F value was above the 0.001 significant level.They have undergone four stages of much water-less water-much water-less water among 53 a.The mutations of each station have bigger differences.The regional average＇s mutation occurred in 1992,The difference of average value after the mutation is 37.8mm.Two mutations happened in Horqin.A mutation occured in Kullen,Bao Kang and Lubei.The remaining three stations haven＇t occured.There are three cycles in regional average.The most obvious one is 52a;the second is 4.33 a and the third is 2.17 a.

关 键 词：中等以上降水总量 趋势 未来趋势 阶段性 突变 周期 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]