基于灰色理论的重庆市常规公交客运量影响因素分析及预测  

The Influence Factors and Prediction Model of Bus Passenger Volume in Chongqing Based on Grey Theory

作　　者：王玉刚[1] 姚红云[1] 李英帅[2] 陈晓芬[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学交通运输学院,重庆400074 [2]东南大学交通学院,南京210096

出　　处：《交通信息与安全》2014年第6期89-94,共6页Journal of Transport Information and Safety

摘　　要：为了研究重庆市常规公交客运的发展水平,把握当前及今后重庆市公交客运量的发展规律和发展方向。采用灰色关联度理论的研究方法,清晰直观地得到了反映重庆市常规公交客运量影响因素与客运量之间的关联度,通过比较分析的方法,发现利用传统灰色预测模型在进行重庆市常规公交客运量预测时,其拟合精度不够。研究发现需要对模型的紧邻均值生成序列做出改进,改进后的灰色预测模型要比传统的灰色预测模型的拟合精度更高,说明改进后的灰色预测模型更适用于重庆市的常规公交客运量的预测。To understand the current condition of bus transit and analyze its future trend in Chongqing, this paper uses the Grey Theory to find out the influence factors of bus passenger volume and the correlation, which will help im- prove the development of Chongqing＇s bus transit. The results of comparative analysis show that the goodness-of-fit of traditional grey prediction model is not satisfying when predicting future Chongqing bus passenger volume. It is found out that the developed grey prediction model in this study fits Chongqing＇s bus transit condition better than the traditional one, which means that it is more acceptable.

关 键 词：灰色理论 客运量 预测 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]