“单独二孩”政策对基本医疗保险基金的支付能力影响研究  

A Research on the Impacts of 2nd-child Policy on the Payment Capacity of China's Basic Health Insurance Fund

作　　者：曾益[1] 任超然[2] 刘倩[3] 

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学保险学院,四川成都611130 [2]华东理工大学社会与公共管理学院,上海200237 [3]上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院,上海200433

出　　处：《保险研究》2015年第1期112-127,共16页Insurance Studies

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(11YJAZH045)的资助

摘　　要：随着我国人口老龄化程度的加剧，部分地区的城镇职工基本医疗保险统筹基金出现支付危机，2013年实行的“单独二孩”政策能提高职工医保统筹基金的支付能力吗？本文以全国为研究对象并运用精算模型研究发现：第一，在生育政策不变的情况下，统筹基金分别在2033年和2041年出现当期赤字和累计赤字；第二，“单独二孩”政策使得职工医保的缴费人口增加并且受益人口增加，从而统筹基金出现当期赤字和累计赤字的时点并未发生变化，但是当期赤字和累计赤字额度分别下降1．2％-15．38％和1．41％-52．77％；第三，即使改变精算模型中的任一参数设置，上述结论仍然成立。所以，虽然“单独二孩”政策不能提高职工医保统筹基金的支付能力，但是在一定程度上改善基金的财务状况，减轻政府的负担。With the rapid population aging, payment crisis of the pooling fund of urban employee basic health insurance （UEBI） appears in some areas of China. The 2nd-child policy for families with one spouse being a single child has been put into effect in 2013. Will this policy improve the payment capacity of the pooling fund of UEBI？ This paper targeted its research at the whole country using actuarial models and made the following findings：Firstly, with the one child one family policy remains unchanged , the current deficit of the pooling fund will arise in 2033, and the emergence of the accumulated deficit will appear in 2041. Secondly, the 2nd-child policy increases the contribution population of UEBI, but the beneficiary population increases as well, consequently the above two points of time will not change, but the amount of current deficit and accumulated deficit will be both decreased by 1.2% to 15.38% and 1.41% to 52.77% respectively. Thirdly,even if any of the parameters in the actuarial models are changed ,the conclusion still holds. To conclude, although the 2nd-child policy cannot raise the payment capacity of UEBI, its financial situation will be improved to some extent, and the burden of government can be alleviated eventually.

关 键 词：“单独二孩”政策 医疗保险 统筹基金 支付能力 精算评估 

分 类 号：F840.684[经济管理—保险]