结合风电功率超短期预测值偏差的实时市场调度  

Real-time market dispatch based on ultra-short-term forecast error of wind power

作　　者：江岳文[1] 温步瀛[1] 

机构地区：[1]福州大学电气工程与自动化学院,福建福州350108

出　　处：《电力自动化设备》2015年第3期12-17,共6页Electric Power Automation Equipment

基　　金：福建省青年人才创新基金资助项目(2011J05124);福建省自然科学基金资助项目(2013J01176)~~

摘　　要：实时市场中的超短期风电功率预测偏差较日前市场有所减小,但与实际出力相比仍然有一定的偏差,需要研究风电的不确定性给实时市场出力调整带来的影响。考虑较短时间内风速分布特性呈正态分布,详细推导了风电场功率分布表达式和偏差概率,建立了基于报价的实时市场出力调整调度模型。该模型以常规机组出力调整费用和风电功率预测偏差费用之和最小作为目标函数。通过具体算例分析了不同的正态分布参数、风电预测功率的变化、惩罚系数的变化对实时市场出力调整成本、风电预测功率偏差成本和偏差期望值的影响。仿真结果验证了模型的有效性。There is a certain difference between the ultra-short-term wind power forecast and the actual output power in the real-time market,though it is smaller than that in the day-ahead market,therefore,the influence of wind power uncertainty on the output power regulation of real-time market should be researched. According to the normal distribution characteristics of wind speed in short period ,the expression of wind power distribution and its error probability are deduced ,and the dispatch model of output power regulation based on the quoted price is built for real-time market,which takes the minimum sum of regulation cost of general generator and error cost of wind power forecast as its objective function. A specific case is taken to analyze the influence of normal distribution parameters,wind power forecast and penalty coefficient on the output power regulation cost,the error cost of wind power forecast and the error expectation is analyzed for the real-time market. Simulative results verify the effectiveness of the proposed model.

关 键 词：风电 实时市场 偏差 调度 成本 超短期 预测 功率预测 

分 类 号：TM734[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] TM614