上消化道出血与季节变化及气象因素的相关性研究  

Study on the relationship between upper gastrointestinal bleeding and seasonal variation of meteorological factors

作　　者：刘健[1] 韩佰花[1] 李玉琴[1] 唐彤宇[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学第一医院胃肠内科内镜中心,长春130021

出　　处：《中华临床医师杂志（电子版）》2015年第4期58-61,共4页Chinese Journal of Clinicians(Electronic Edition)

摘　　要：目的探讨吉林省上消化道出血(UGIB)的季节性发病规律及其与气象因素的相关性。方法对吉林大学第一医院2011年1月至2012年12月确诊为UGIB的681例住院患者的临床资料、入院时的月份和季度归属及同期的气象资料进行统计分析,比较各个月份、季度之间UGIB发病的差异,并分析各气象因素与UGIB发病之间的关系。结果 UGIB的发病例数在不同季节有统计学差异(χ2=25.11,P<0.01)。秋、冬季出血发生率明显高于春、夏季(58.30%vs.41.70%,P<0.01),且在10月达高峰,在4月达低谷。Spearman双变量相关分析显示UGIB发病与平均大气压关联最显著(rho=0.738,P=0.000),其次是平均气温(rho=-0.533,P=0.007),再次是人体舒适度指数(rho=-0.462,P=0.023),而平均风速(rho=-0.359,P=0.085)、平均相对湿度(rho=0.168,P=0.431)和平均气温日较差(rho=-0.005,P=0.98)与UGIB发病无明显关联。将平均大气压和平均气温代入多元线性回归分析,可建立回归方程:UGIB月发病数=-1 211.401+0.349×月平均气温+1.254×月平均大气压。结论吉林省UGIB的发病存在显著的季节差异,且与月平均大气压呈正相关,与月平均气温呈负相关。通过多元线性回归分析,可以建立预测方程,进行医疗气象预报。Objective To verify the possible existence of a seasonal pattern in the onset of upper gastrointestinal bleeding （UGIB） and its correlation with meteorological factors in Jilin province. Methods The study included 681 patients whose diagnosis was UGIB. They were consecutively admitted to First Hospital of Jilin University between January, 2011 and December, 2012. The difference between the incidence of each month and each quarter was told, and statistical analysis of the relationship between the incidence of UGIB and meteorological data was also made retrospectively. Results The number of UGIB cases occurred in spring, summer, autumn, winter was different, and the difference was statistically significant （χ2=25.11, P〈0.01）. Moreover, the incidence of UGIB in autumn and winter was significantly higher than in spring and summer （58.30%vs. 41.70%, P〈0.05）, and its peak was in October; its trough in April. Furthermore, Spearman bivariate correlation analysis showed that the association between the onset of UGIB with the mean meteorological factors was that atmospheric pressure （rho=0.738, P=0.000）, followed by temperature （rho=-0.533, P=0.007）, next was human comfort index （rho=-0.462, P=0.023）, but the association between the incidence of UGIB and wind speed （rho=-0.359, P=0.085）, relative humidity （rho=0.168, P=0.431） and temperature diurnal difference （rho=-0.005, P=0.98） was poor. Finally, the linear regression equation was established, the incidence of UGIB per month=-1 211.401＋0.349×the mean temperature per month＋1.254×the mean atmospheric pressure per 〈br〉 month. Conclusion There was seasonal fluctuation in upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Besides, the incidence of UGIB and the mean atmospheric pressure was positive correlated, while the mean temperature was negative correlated. In addition, by multivariate linear regression analysis, we can establish the predictive equation, which can be used for medical meteorological forecast.

关 键 词：消化性溃疡 高血压 门静脉 上消化道出血 季节变化 医疗气象预报 

分 类 号：R573.2[医药卫生—消化系统]