外交决策分析与国际关系学范式革命  

Foreign Policy Analysis and Paradigm Shift in International Relations

作　　者：卢凌宇[1] 林敏娟[2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江师范大学非洲研究院 [2]浙江师范大学法政学院

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2015年第3期74-102,158-159,共29页World Economics and Politics

摘　　要：外交决策分析旨在通过对决策者言语和行为的分析来研究政府对外决策的过程和政策输出。它既不是国际关系学的具体问题领域,也不是它的方法论,而是一个成长中的范式。从本体论上看,外交决策分析把国家关系设定为人与人之间的关系,假定个人是国际关系的起点,把人置于国际关系的中心,从而克服了主流国际关系理论对人的忽视和同质化处理。在认识论/方法论上,外交决策分析批判弗里德曼的工具主义,推崇科斯式实在论,强调理论的目的在于解释以及理论的前提必须真实,从而让历史回归国际关系。在研究方法上,外交决策分析鼓励跨层次分析,通过对外交决策精英尤其是政治领袖在具体事件中的言语和行为,来归纳和检验各层次变量对外交决策的影响,实现理论整合。尽管前途远大,但外交决策分析在国际关系学中仍然处于边缘地位,其发展严重受制于高昂的研究成本、学者们历史学训练的缺乏、主流学派的打压以及普遍的工具主义信念等因素。外交决策分析既符合中国的学术文化传统,又是中国国际关系学者普遍的研究偏好,因此是发展国际关系学中国特色或中国学派的最优路径之一。Foreign policy analysis(FPA) attempts to explore the decision making process and policy output by focusing upon the discourse and behavior of foreign policy decision makers.In the realm of International Relations,it is neither a substantive subfield nor a methodological branch.Instead,FPA is a growing paradigm.Ontologically,it postulates that international relations is inter-personal relations in nature and that individuals are the point of departure for international relations.In this way,FPA puts individuals in the center of international relations and surpasses main stream theories that either neglect or homogenize human beings.From the epistemological and methodological perspective,FPA throws strong doubts upon Friedmanian Instrumentalism,and proposes Coarsian Realism,which brings 'history' back to international relations by proposing that the goal of theories is to explain and making true assumptions in the course of theory construction.Methodologically,FPA is characterized by crosslevel analysis.This is how foreign policy analysts induce and test the impacts of determinants at different levels upon the outcome variable,thereby achieving theoretical integration.Despite great prospects,FPA remains marginalized in the whole sub-discipline of International Relations.Specifically speaking,its growth is significantly constrained by high research costs,scholarly lack of historical training,dominance of main stream paradigms,along with the popularity of Instrumentalism among political scientists.Nevertheless,FPA is not only congenial to China's intellectual culture,but also preferred by most Chinese scholars.We believe that FPA is an optimal approach to developing the Chinese characteristics or School of International Relations.

关 键 词：外交决策分析 范式革命 工具主义 历史分析 跨层次分析 

分 类 号：D81[政治法律—国际关系]