产业结构升级的就业效应分析  

Analyze the Effect of Upgrading Industrial Structure

作　　者：周学良[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学,山东青岛266100

出　　处：《金融发展研究》2015年第2期21-26,共6页Journal Of Financial Development Research

摘　　要：研究产业结构升级与失业率的关系作为判断产业结构升级就业效应的重要指标,具有现实意义。本文通过构建全国产业结构升级与失业率的非线性阈值模型进行研究,研究结果表明:我国产业结构升级呈非线性动态变化,并且产业结构升级过程中对就业产生了较大影响,在产业结构趋于成熟时,就业效应反而不显著。The relationship between unemployment and upgrading of industrial structure can be used as an important index of industrial structure upgrade employment effect. This paper constructs a nonlinear threshold model between national unemployment rate and upgrading of industrial structure. Results show that China＇s industrial structure upgrading has nonlinear dynamic change,and it exhibits an obvious effect on employment,while when industrial structure towards maturity,employment effect is insignificant.

关 键 词：产业结构升级 非线性 阈值协整 FMOLS 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]